$DVAX: There is major upside or this stock would be trading much lower market cap. After all, who would still stay the course with Dynavax for just a 20% to 30% potential gain with a risk of losing 70% or more on FDA rejection. The answer is simple! Dynavax would be worth 3x multiple of peak sales (growing) and likely 5x on buyout without SD-101. On Heplisav alone, it would value conservatively a buyout at $1.8 Billion meaning we have much more upside and the risk on the second go around is worth the high return.
I suspect that many are starting to believe the SD-101 potential and thus are willing to continue to drive market cap higher.
There are plenty of clinical Cancer biotech companies with no approved drug that are trading well north of $2 Billion. If Dynavax shows any positive results from Standford or Merk trials, we will easily surpass $2 billion market cap especial with buyout interest from plenty of big pharma that need to fill up there pipeline on expiring patents. I'm staying in through mid next year on likely FDA approval and the SD-101 trial results likely to come out by Q3'2016. At that time, I will determine whether to stay invested or bail out and move into my next investments.
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