Why waste your breath on words like the "oil markets are far from heating up?" If the oil market was hot, you'd have to pay $60+ for RIG. Buying oil service stocks is all about gambling. If you're not a gambler, walk away from the table.
You are preaching gloom and doom because you are foolishly short RIG. I've been buying this stock since the early 1990's. I knew the stock price ran up too far three months ago so I warned this group and moved out. Now that RIG has over-corrected as all stocks usually do, I sold out everything and jumped back in. Maybe $16 in not the bottom, but I don't see how this stock can sell any cheaper with WTI range bound between $58 and $60. It was selling for $14 when WTI was at $42. I thought crude would drop to ~$55 and am surprised that that has not happened. Why? I do not know. I think $55 is the right price for now, but I've learned over 20 years that them market knows more than I do. But with RIG at $16, it does not matter whether oil is $55 or $60 because $16 is too cheap for even $50 WTI.
My bet is that a lot of shorts jump on RIG again and that's why it's down. Their better the deal with Iran will flood the market with crude, but I don't think that's gonna happen. Even if there was a deal, it would take Iran 2-3 years to ramp up production. Then you got the oil card, Isis. There has to be a big war to separate these idiots for the oil that feeds them. This battle has to take place in the middle east. When it happens, a lot of oil facilities will have to be taken oil, which could spike a huge run-up in crude to $80. So the way I see it, the Iran card and the situation with Isis balance each other out.
I'm betting RIG will run it again like it has done a thousand times. Rather this time it will slowly move back toward to $20 to $22 range by the end of the year when WTI reaches $65 share. And... there is indeed a bit of glut on the market, but this will correct itself as we move into the summer driving season.
By the way, the #1 lesson to learn in the oil patch is that everything you hear or read is all guesses--no one knows for sure what the future will bring, especially those that call the oil market one year in advance.
The oil patch trades on human sentiment and enthusiasm. Investors get excited about making a killing by buying RIG at the bottom. The market goes up and down--the daily bombardment by the gloom and doom folks wears on the excitement and many go back to looking for slow, sure profits from stock like GE.
But if you're a gambler and like big profits... then load your truck first thing Monday morning and hang on for a wild ride. If I'm right, and I am more often than not, we will see WTI selling for $70 by Christmas and RIG selling between $20 and $25.
Anyone that says they know what's gonna happened is $2016 is full of Texas bullshit.
AI
