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Tuesday, June 09, 2015 2:02:45 PM
Assume:
* P90 (proven reserves) at 34 mbo
* P10 (Possible reserves) at 135 mbo
Note-not sure if the 3D seismic shot on 444 upped the P10 or P90 estimates on 444...anyone know?
* a buyout at $50 per b.o. (note Tchauncy used $100 b.o. on his Brigham Exploration analysis) My understanding is that the buyout valuation in BE had a lot to do with how much acreage BE had, much more so that it's proven(p90) reserves...so I hope $50 per b.o. is reasonable.
* Working interests... Henc 49%, TGC 20%
I assume that the ultimate buyout price is based on each company's working interest above...and that may not be the case ultimately, but it's close enough for now.
* This analysis also does not take into account any future dilution to either company...likely NOT Likely
Price targets
Henc: P90 pps = $29, P10 pps = $7.50
TGC P90 pps = $15, P10 pps = $3.50(rounded down here...possible Civelli discount!)
And keep in mind, this analysis assumes only the possible P90 reserves on the mere 6% or less of the land on 112 and 444 where seismic was shot. What else might be out there....hmmmm? Could one reasonably beleive that the price targets above could be 10x the numbers above...one can only dream. It is not out of the question...I'll gladly take just 3x the numbers above!!
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