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Re: mysscat post# 4057

Saturday, 06/03/2006 1:39:38 PM

Saturday, June 03, 2006 1:39:38 PM

Post# of 30387
<<<Good...The latest release states that the test could be improved to better show early detection if it was able to be personalized over a period of time.
Bad..The above statement shows that the current test is set at a level that is too high to consistently detect early cancers.

THE CURRENT TEST DOES DETECT CANCER WITH MORE ACCURACY THAN ANYTHING ELSE WE HAVE. IT DOES NOT HAVE TO BE PERSONALIZED TO DETECT CANCER. THE GOOD IS THE TEST. THE BETTER IS THAT THE COLORIZATION NOW MAKES THE TEST EASIER TO USE. IT DOES NOT HAVE TO BE PERSONALIZED TO WORK.>>>


I am not saying that it does not detect cancer. I agree with your response. What you are not addressing is the detection of early cancers. Since the level of RECAF varies, the threshold for determining cancer has to be high enough to trigger a positive for those persons with a normal high level. Otherwise, you have a rather high false positive rate. When the threshold is set to prevent false positives, it will fail to detect early stage cancers for persons with a normal low level of RECAF. This is the problem that Moro is trying to address with an additional personalized test. Setting up an ongoing data base for yourself is indeed an undertaking. I do not know if a personalized test would fly with insurance coverage.

When I first looked at the stock for her, I did not realize people had a normal variable level of RECAF and neither did she. That information was no doubt available and I was remiss in not finding it until the latest press releases. IMO, the odds of Abbott perfecting an acceptable test is about 50-50 but if they do, BOCX stock will be close to 5 bucks in a heartbeat. Also, the closer we get to that 18 month window, the odds of Abbott returning it increase. I wish everyone luck with the investment.
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