Sphere 3D Corp. (ANY)

[commoncentsinvestor]

"Far more important than revenue is the gross margin on that revenue. For example if OVRL tarts up the revenue line by reselling hard drives in their NAS boxes at cost, it would add no value at all"

That statement just shows how tainted your analysis is. Any reasonable analysis would use previous gross margins to try to come to some more accurate estimate of future margins. In the case of OVRL, their last report was 3Q 2014. Their gross margin for that quarter was 32.5%. Using that as a basis, and your estimate for OVRL 2015 revenues of $145M, that would result in gross profit of $47.125M. Add in another $5M GP from V3 (your figures of $10M with 50% gross) and we are at $52.125M before operating expenses. It's conceivable that this would come close to break even.

The real question becomes what kind of revenue will GlassWare produce. You give it $5M. There really is no basis for that figure. I could say it will do $25M. But there would be no basis for that either. Neither of those figures have any real validity, but actually either of those figures is possible.

So it just brings us back to where we know we are at. The bashers & shorters believe GlassWare is nothing special and has little value. The longs and now quite a few tech experts & large tech companies & marketers believe it has great potential.

The funny thing is that even with your tainted toward the negative analysis, you still come up with a $3 per share value for Sphere. That would mean a potential .60 downside from here.

On the other hand if the longs are right, as I pointed out yesterday, a share price of $10, $20, $30 or more is possible.

"I think it lives or dies on Glassware"

Right on.