"""IF ANY does a Run rate of $160 million by end of 2015,... with a split of $115 million OVRL and $15 million GW/V3,... what value would you give the stock,..? """
Thanks for the polite question. I assume you mean $145M OVRL and $15M V3/GW.
The answer of course is that it depends.
Far more important than revenue is the gross margin on that revenue. For example if OVRL tarts up the revenue line by reselling hard drives in their NAS boxes at cost, it would add no value at all (e.g. buy $10M of Western Digital Drives and resell them installed in SnapSevers for $10M) gets the revenue up but does nothing for the bottom line.
Ditto for V3 which is effectively, IMHO, an off-the-shelf server running VMWare software (with a bit of V3 management software on top), so V3 running at say a 30-50% gross margin. Hard to tell what their margins are- they looked to be 50% last year but remember there was the mysterious unexplained $2M reversal of intra-company transactions (between ANY and OVRL) which means those margins could have been inflated.
Glassware, which I estimate has less that $200K in total revenue to date is presumably 100% gross margin.
So in terms of ranking I'd say $1 of GW revenue is worth the most, followed by V3, followed by Overland. Unfortunately the current revenue value pyramid is inverted, with virtually (pun intended) all revenue coming from OVRL.
If I had to swag your theoretical example and say it was:
$145M OVRL
$10M V3
$5M GW
I'd swag something like 0.7x on OVRL, 2x on V3, and even 5x on GW which would spit out something like $145M. Less $25M in debt would be get to about $3 per share on a 40M share count. Obviously total ball parks.
I personally think all three will be substantially below the above numbers, unless OVRL sacrifices margin to pump up the top line.
Remember OVRL was a $50M market cap company a year ago and V3 assets were bought for something like $10M.
I think it lives or dies on Glassware and I do not view it as being worth much at all. Others of course have different opinions which is what makes a market.
