I could be all wet, but here goes anyway….IMHO Brent intentionally underestimated the potential market share percentage to be captured by VOIS in anticipation of over delivering first year sales numbers of the new NeuroSync device. Emotive is a perfect example of NeuroSyncs' potential here. Emotiv...even with their ridiculous looking wrap around headband that you would never wear in public, claims to have over 200,000 presales at $300 a pop. That's 60M in revenue which would be 3% of the anticipated $2B BCI market. Clearly dwarfing the 1% for VOIS that was stated by Brent (I believe all wearables are expected to be $8B or more in 2015). And that’s only their PRESALES with no idea of the magnitude of full 1st year sales numbers. Either Emotiv is inflating their presale numbers… or the market percentage to be captured by any of the companies offering a BCI device is well over 1%.... or the market size is significantly more than $2B. My guess is the 1% target for VOIS is way too low. With the limited number of companies offering a BCI device that can legitimately contend with NeuroSync, if VOIS only captures 1% of the pie, then how many other companies will be strong enough to each haul in a significant chunk of the other 99% no matter what the market size is? 99 others at 1% also?
I feel confident that NeuroSync will outsell the Emotiv device by 2:1 OR MORE even if it only performs “fairly well”. The sleek design, mobility factor and $129 price tag should assure that. Assuming 400,000 presale units at $129 that's 52M in revenue. From the January redchip report the cost of goods sold for NeuroSync (Synapse from the report) is $40 with a now established selling price of $129. As you can see, the profit could easily be over 20% and very well may be over 50%. Using a lowball number of 30% profit times 52M is 16M in profit. 16M times a 20 P/E (probably higher for anticipated future revenue of a tech company introducing revolutionary new technology) would be a 320M valuation. 320M divided by 2B shares is $.16 a share.... which is a 5,800% increase over todays’ I could be all wet, but here goes anyway….IMHO Brent intentionally underestimated the potential market share percentage to be captured by VOIS in anticipation of over delivering first year sales numbers of the new NeuroSync device. Emotive is a perfect example of NeuroSyncs' potential here. Emotiv...even with their ridiculous looking wrap around headband that you would never wear in public, claims to have over 200,000 presales at $300 a pop. That's 60M in revenue which would be 3% of the anticipated $2B BCI market. Clearly dwarfing the 1% for VOIS that was stated by Brent (I believe all wearables are expected to be $8B or more in 2015). And that’s only their PRESALES with no idea of the magnitude of full 1st year sales numbers. Either Emotiv is inflating their presale numbers… or the market percentage to be captured by any of the companies offering a BCI device is well over 1%.... or the market size is significantly more than $2B. My guess is the 1% target for VOIS is way too low. With the limited number of companies offering a BCI device that can legitimately contend with NeuroSync, if VOIS only captures 1% of the pie, then how many other companies will be strong enough to each haul in a significant chunk of the other 99% no matter what the market size is? 99 others at 1% also?
I feel confident that NeuroSync will outsell the Emotiv device by 2:1 OR MORE even if it only performs “fairly well”. The sleek design, mobility factor and $129 price tag should assure that. Assuming 400,000 presale units at $129 that's 52M in revenue. From the January redchip report the cost of goods sold for NeuroSync (Synapse from the report) is $40 with a now established selling price of $129. As you can see, the profit could easily be over 20% and very well may be over 50%. Using a lowball number of 30% profit times 52M is 16M in profit. 16M times a 20 P/E (probably higher for anticipated future revenue of a tech company introducing revolutionary new technology) would be a 320M valuation. 320M divided by 2B shares is $.16 a share.... which is a 5,800% increase over todays’ pps. As a reminder, this is all predicated on estimates of PRESALE figures only (from Emotiv). Imagine what 1st year sales numbers will be. IMO this company could easily be worth over 500M with Joe negotiating a buyout. If my math is “off” somewhere then I stand corrected….. but something CLEARLY doesn’t add up.
Assumptions: Emotiv 200,000 presales, NeuroSync 2:1 sales ratio, NeuroSync 30% profit margin per unit, 20 P/E, 2 billion shares
