I gotta hunch Samsung is coming soon.
Maybe I'm reading the tea leaves all wrong, but I've got a gut feeling that we are going to get news on Sammy by next week. These are guesses and suppositions, so no one should think I've got "inside info", it's all guesswork on my part. Disclosure - being fully invested in IDCC and not willing to use margin, Friday I bought 100 June 30 calls. Haven't played the margin game for about 5 years, but risking $1,600 to control 10,000 shares gives me a risk/reward that works for me. In the past I've been very unsuccessful trying to time things so no one should follow my lead on this. The fact is that there is a high probability (maybe 90% or more) that this calls will expire worthless. It is a pure gamble.
Here's what I'm seeing that's lead me to my opinion:
Based on the Nokia timetable the results of the Samsung arbitration are due. Given that the same issues have already been arbitrated I don't expect that there would be a delay like there was for Nokia. I would expect that IDCC would be awarded $50-$60 million. I think that would jump the price about 10% for the short term, although I think it is already priced into the stock.
Samsung may be willing to sign a 3G agreement to get a break on the 2G award. That would add forward predictable revenues and give additional support to IDCC's 3G IP value, raising expectations for other licenses. I'd expect this to boost the price over $30 - by how much would depend on the terms.
I do not see evidence that IDCC is buying shares right now. I would think (hope) the $25 level would be very attractive to the company, so they may be out of the market because of pending news.
The ASM is coming up soon, and I imagine Mr. Merritt and the rest of management would love to have some good news to discuss, so to the extent possible I think they would do their best to finalize any negotiations. Whether they do or not, Mr. Merritt is an excellent communicator and I feel that he will do a good job of presenting a positive future for the company at the ASM.
For these reasons I am hopeful that there may be news in the next two weeks that will cause the stock price to jump. The one negative indicator I see is the Jagfn rumor posted. They tend to be planted by someone looking to unload shares.
