... Let's Throw This Around The Table ...
I saw a few responses that I found interesting ...
1st; to answer pm's question ... Yes' this would only be a consideration, regarding "illiquid" assets, Trusts, as returns to the Liquidating Trust' from the FDIC' and would involve a potential ~ "stock for transfer" event from our own WMIH' ...
2nd; to JB's response ... I'm not sure regarding ratio's ... However, I would like for anyone considering this following (8 ball) to chime in on' ...
3rd; to W3Reasearch'; ... Yes' I believe the boyzzz' had this all planned from the onset' ... again, there were not a lot of changes between Plan 6 and the approved Plan 7 other than equitys inclusion' ...
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So Okay' ... I'll take a shot at it' ~ to open up the discussion' ...
OK' first let me say that I believe the amounts of dollar values related to the illiquid Trust returns, coming from the FDIC to our own Liquidating Trust to be massive' ... and I do not envision how WMIH has enough of anything' to handle us in one quick swoop .... SO' ... In my opinion, this has to be a multi phased event' moving forward (IMO) ...
let's say, WMIH wanted to initialize a total of an additional 500 million shares to achieve a "stock for value" event from the LT'... ~ 200m shares out now, when the B's convert there is what ? 600m more shares, for a total of 1.3 billion out' at the final ... (200m + the 600m for the B's + an additional 500m shares needed, for the stock for value consideration) ... the first round, if you will ... (I believe there will be multiple tiered rounds as the stock price begins to increase ...)
See how this would work;
The First Round' ... So, ... 1.3 billion total shares out at the current price of $2.25 per' ... this would make the company's market cap be $2.925 billion dollars out of the gate' or ending within the first round of a "stock for value" event' equally 2.92 billion dollars worth of Trust illiquid asset value to be considered' ...
The company has now moved off of the OTC and can experience a conservative P/E ratio of a multiple of 4 ... making the stock move to a conservative price of $9.00 ($2.25 X 4) and a market cap of ($2.92 billion X 4 or a market cap of $11.7 billion) ...
Second Round' ... WMIH is now, settled in and ready for more' ... (The LT is still holding a whole bunch of illiquid assets) ...
The company now approves an additional 500m share release and everyone approves an additional "stock for value" of 500 million more shares only now at the second round values', worth 500m X $9.00 per share or a value to WMIH from the LT of $4.5 billion dollars more (Trust Values are being diminished while the company's value is increasing) ...
So now the company has, at a multiple of 4 ... a value of 4.5b + 11.7b = 16.2 billion + 4.5 X 4 for the additional, or a total market cap of 16.2b plus the new 18b = 34.2 billion dollars'
WMIH is now after two rounds, using a conservative multiple of 4 throughout' ... a 32.2 billion dollar company with 1.8 billion shares outstanding ... ($32.2 b / 1.8 shares = WMIH share value at $17.88 per share' )
So, ... of course this is just my own speculation, however, I hope as I have presented, this ends up being a very viable move forward for all involved ... (especially the escrow tracking marker holders, since at every round, not only do they receive additional stock for value WMIH shares, but the WMIH share price and market cap increase also' ... a win win win for everyone' ...
As everyone can see, as this hypothetical model progresses, after a few more rounds (maybe a round three, four or five) this stock is rockin' and the escrow tracking marker holders, which released have actually received a "comprehensive fair and reasonable recovery" as stated' ... an increased amount of WMIH shares, which could be sold at will, plus an increased WMIH share value'
Thanks for listening ...
AZ
AI
