NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[Pyrrhonian]

Hey Dan, no offense but I couldn't care less if anyone believes whether or not I'm long.

Instead, it will probably go up to $10 first, followed by some solidation with a bit up and down for some time. Then, it will likely go up again. Depending on market DYNAMICS, it may just go up to $20 or $30 where it deserves before definite news. -Dan88

I don't see justification for that yet. What's pretty clear to me is that one or more funds have been adding, and because of the small float/volume have been driving the hell out of the pps. Once that stops (because it does stop, and may have already) it will likely settle back down. In the past that has happened fairly soon after the volume dropped--the pps would trend up on no news as a larger position was filled over a day or three and then head back down to familiar support levels (aka where retail was unwilling to sell and willing to buy). It is good that Woodford is in, and was imo the one likely driving the pps up, and also the one buying up $7 calls, which have gone up some 500% on average from a month ago--it certainly wasn't retail buying them. He knew he could make $7s and even $8s appear out of thin air.

Good plan I'd say.

But now how do you know he isn't grabbing a few shorts and puts, closing out calls, then selling some shares back into the $6s where he'll cover and do it all over again? Why won't he manipulate the stock if he can? Of course, long term he seems to be on board with DCVax coming through but why not make cash by moving it around until then? Overall the trend will head north in executing this strategy. I'm not naive enough to think Woody isn't moving this around and making $ along the way.

And so as I keep saying, if you're retail just buy and hold and wait for Ph III DCVax-L data and Ph II Direct data. Stop trying to time and predict and blah blah--you can't. And you are powerless to do anything other than buy and sell based on DD and price targets. The big boys can create price targets. There is no way to predict a chart that can be manipulated, and it's not even all that accurate when it can't be.

But when these lower prices come back, sure enough the old standbys will come crawling out from under some rock with their latest consternations. Which I find a little sad.

So if you want to know my motivation for predicting a lower price than here, which I see as $7s and then possibly a dip into the $6s (especially when April 1 comes--or April 20 for that matter--and not much new save a few case studies), it's to speak to those who are long and getting a little too excited and who will be a little too dismayed when it retraces. The move I'm in for won't happen this year, unless the Ph III is halted for efficacy.

$.02