I may not be one of the "informers" but here are my thoughts:
1. Chances are good: 60% + IMO. It would make sense to couple the two so as to avoid the panic of the RS by itself/propel the stock upward with less volatility. Assuming when you say "together" you mean +/- 2 days.
2. If financials (earnings) are good and the RS ratio isn't higher than 1 for 5, I see no reason for the share price to retreat. This is all about justifying a market cap, attracting investors, and avoiding dilution. All of this "this is how stocks work" and "RS always means...xyz" and "technicals this, technicals that" is all ridiculous in the context of market cap/distribution footprint/revenue growth/cash flow.
A third piece of the puzzle you didn't mention: I expect refinancing/private placement/debt restructure news +/- 5 days of the RS announcement.
IMO:
Most important: Good earnings (revenue growth, improved margin)
Second most important: Kill all toxic debt
Third most important: RS ratio
All this focus on the RS is silly. Market cap! I think pps is moving up because folks expect good financials (due to the distribution growth/new products/advertising we've seen the past 6 months). Good financials suggest the company is investible which suggests toxic debt can be handled realistically. If there are good financials and the company is investible, you don't need a massive RS. You just need some breathing room and some shares to expand with/sell private placement.
Good luck to you. I hope you hang in there if you're already invested. If not, I hope you find an entry point you're comfortable with soon.
