NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[maverick_1]

My Viewpoint: Being out of the stock now is the riskiest despite YTD performance.

First a tidbit observation of FACT to add to the composite of my posts on NWBO stock movements:

Observed that the FEWER daily, weekly, monthly iHub posts here the better NWBO shrs have performed!

Since year end 2014 there has been a dramatic decline here of posts!

One poster posited otherwise citing the high profile of NWBO attained in viewership and postings on NWBO during late 2014.

For those who haven't seen it :

maverick_1 Saturday, 12/27/14 02:35:43 PM
Re: None
Post # of 30023
The Cumulative RECAP Summary of 2014:

FWIW:Since I've been on this board, it's bewildering the amount of micro analysis that perpetuates perhaps reflecting upon one's investment experience in the markets especially with biotechs in clinicals vs commercial!

Foremost are the mini plus, mela culpa's, silently between the lines. beginning with the key word distinction between pending and then outstanding (as it relates to potential DMC on efficiacy) in the early part of 2014; to more recently "lost in translation" to a lack of understanding between evaluating the minefield maze of considerations in a hierarchical manner in considering the pro's and con's of taking the advisory DMC recommendation of a halt (should such be the case) and the risks of that path. Since no one know what LP's current and evolving relationship with the FDA is, nor what she has on her weekly PERT Chart; an investor MUST, first and foremost, take what is publicly conveyed to the MAINSTREAM in the form of a PR or SEC Filing vs challenging unproductively here that may become unsettling and perhaps divisive..... all of these matters should be dealt first AT NWBO rather than on message boards IMHO to the more recently one with NO email response from LP to RKMatters recently on the matter posted. None of the above should deter discussion but what one can not accept intellectually has apparently, no basis in reality, to date with, what has and will transpire: one needs to adhere to what NWBO states pending clarifications!

Otherwise pay a hefty price for it especially in the TONS of $ expended and worthless options, not to mentioned realized stock losses to average down one's cost basis by many prominent and less visible posters during all of 2014 who have been swayed by discussions here which IMHO have had a major impact on NWBO shares in terms of it's downward share flight AND volatility as well as the fact that when the "major players have been retail" a large decimation in terms of retail fire power which the AF/Shorts surely were aware of! and pounced.

Surely when LP has taken NWBO from near ashes a few times to where it is, and where it's going... speaks of her foresight, wisdom and accomplishments in stark contrast to what would have been insurmountable odds for the typical biotech practitioner!

So altho this board has gone on many expeditions during the past year hopefully the lesson learned is: WE ARE IN THE BEST OF HANDS that has a lot at stake since LP et al are the Control Person! Moreover, to date this board has exhibited what appears to me the limits of it's Peter's Principle in a whole rafter of undertakings. The whipsaws and backlashes experienced gives most trepidations; re-examinations or digging deep.

BTW this is the first message board I've actively participated since leaving Wall St.

Investing is a complex process and the same applies to analysis for established companies. It is not a science but an art that is constantly subject to honing and refining given the ultra dynamic supporting elements behind it. However this is magnified many,many times over with it's past labeled as an emerging, forever incubating biotech as begins it's transitions during late stage biotech developments.

The above are my retrospective views of the past year in NWBO.

Happy Holidays everyone.

And still applicable:

maverick_1 Sunday, 01/04/15 02:02:57 PM
Re: Rkmatters post# 27861
Post # of 30024
Didn't Steven G during 2014's last weekend did a U turn(rather than just change his POV on Direct vs competition cited on CART's)!

What prompts the above:
Quote:
Last week, Pyrr started to share his own due diligence on Direct's competitive landscape and the potential affects it posed on his own opinion of the potential market cap (his POV), and Afford asked me about it (I thought he felt strongly in favor of Direct!). I believe Pyrr's quest for competitive truth possibly unnerved Afford, and it is making him second guess all things. It's clear to me he's not comfortable with the thought of any of us changing our views ever so slightly to the negative (and frankly, our views should fluctuate, sometimes getting stronger, and sometime weaker). IMO, Afford should follow in your footsteps and not view this iHub as often as he does now, and that might actually help him find his own truth. (I'm actually trying to do that too, in an effort to find balance though - I'm good on the truth part.)

My take on ALL mea culpa's: anyone reading through the voluminous CART articles surfacing recently especially as a result of the market response accorded to this area and my unremoved labelling of NWBO in the basement as a result of being THE DARK HORSE should still realize as Steven G does, the limits and costs of CART's vs Direct. Frankly I was surprised that Steven G started that escapade and moreso his own belated acknowledgment of the impact of his posts resulting in 2014 sizeable losses in poster's portfolio and added NWBO volatility. And I did not delve into, or was I affected intellectually, sensing Steven G would make a round trip. I go with my own instincts vs anyone on this board as I have profiled everyone (could be changed, just like anything else) and haven't sold any NWBO: increasing them at propitious moments, though clearly devoting a lot more especially to new positions.

The markets where ever one looks are reflecting some sense of investor unease overall as reflected in the last three trading days.And as I've stated NWBO still is my portfolio laggard altho still dealing with sellers (who knows their reasons?) that appear to be drying up.

IMPORTANTLY to be objective: rid yourself of your bias' and what you know by doing the following: Would you buy NWBO today based on a basic DD at this phase of the mkt or would you sell would be liberating IMHO and productive

And retrospectively, unless someone or NWBO makes a significant announcement, I have found myself in the mode towards disengagement as I find inertia vs the liberation on other pursuits much more gratifying on every front. Different strokes for different folks with varying mindsets is the bottomline.

Rkmatters Member Level Sunday, January 04, 2015 2:48:39 PM
Re: maverick_1 post# 27869 Post # of 30025
Steven ended up agreeing that Car-T might not be as big as competitor to Direct, but it's not because anything anyone stated, it's due to his own DD search. So yes, he's back to his original market cap for Direct (I forget what that is). But, Juno has a lot of money to play with, and so I imagine he'll be watching them closely. :)

I'm actually surprised his post caught you off guard. He's written many times that he leans to his optimistic side first, and then only afterwards looks to uncover reasons to oppose his own views. The only thing is this iHub generally freaks out when he does it. It has never once made me nervous only curious. But, I remember joining this iHub in August and shortly thereafter reading him debating with himself over the compassionate use data. Some of his post were pro. Some were con. And back and forth he went, pro/con with some wine and data. At first I was confused by it. Was he pro or con? Oh, wait, he's pro again. ;). After those post I realized he's like the rest of us, figuring it as he goes along. Optimistically blinded by the data the company shares with us, and then suspicious to find out as much truth as possible. Anyone can get him to change his mind if they convince him there's truth there. And therein is why I'm not unnerved by it. But, I'm also thicker skinned than most, so even if we ended up disagreeing over Direct in the end, I'd still be okay; unless, of course, he could convince me otherwise.

Fortunately this has transpired: Institutional buying lately:

maverick_1 Wednesday, 01/14/15 01:58:48 PM
Re: maverick_1 post# 28287
Post # of 30025
Without Instl Interest $shr limits (STATED here in various posts since
late Summer 2014)

Hopefully at some point we get the necessary traction with dealing with a mere fragment of the marketing potential: those 9 CLDX analysts directly sent vs those empty indirect tries late Fall 2014 with Baker Bros. Best always to do it oneself.

Dealing with movers and their instl clients clearly has 100 fold impact than individuals.Unless you have experienced the full investment process and how it really works, talking amongst ourselves clearly has it's demonstrated limitations. No one on this board has the full panoply of knowledge, let alone the experience of dealing face to face with institution whether they are $50 mln or $10 Billion PLUS assets under mgt that is solely equity oriented. The origin of most posters emanate from a either a personal encounter with cancer or a loved ones' versus solely investment process orientation.That's a very large distinction.

Everyone should forward copies of BOTH transcripts w/ necessary audio links to whomever because OUTREACH is IMHO more critical than spending time on this board posting as you should be all up to speed.With ww markets in disarray courtesy of the implications of DEFLATION and the massive acceleration in collaborations lately in this space one needs to devote time vs ignore means much less on this board for me!

Good to see Ask SIZE offerings being taken OUT despite initial tepid response to Biotech Showcase presentation which coincidentally even with the limited OPCO audience (mostly retail oriented vs instl) AND was LAST in schedule of presenters when most attendees are close to spent with day's lineup.

Should AF who has made a big fool of himself as it relates to NWBO make his last ditch effort to quash NWBO ("Custers Last Stand") AF is facing his Tsunami of:

1) being admonished by the Chairman of the Data Monitoring Committee 2)along with the the procession of CEO's presentations in the last 3 mos since the early Dec. 2014 OPCO presentation, and the
3)demonstrated impact of recently institutional buying piercing thru the $6's is just the tip of the iceberg response to NWBO being in the forefront of immuno-oncology.NWBO is still the laggard.
4)while there are reportedly few shares to borrow to short,
5)coupled with the reported large April 2015 Call Option activity;
6)the substantiation of CEO LP remarks with a 13D of a 10.9% of NWBO shrs owned by Sir Woodford and the April 2014 availability in a dedicated biotech fund that likely will include MORE NWBO shares, and
7)the parade of HC conferences and trade events thru June
8)PR's concerning clinicals and progress in Europe.

Solely based on what is known from the above, IMHO it would be foolhardy
for even weak holders to succumb to any of AF's obtuse ramblings becoming ineffectual while institutions continue their early accumulation.