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Re: shortround1 post# 1353

Friday, 02/27/2015 10:29:54 AM

Friday, February 27, 2015 10:29:54 AM

Post# of 26267
Please do not compare VLDI to the biotech world. I made most my money in biotech stocks and I can tell you they are two completely different animals.

First in the biotech world most investors know from the start that a product will take on average anywhere from 10-15 years to develop and run through clinical trails. You are also betting that the product will get FDA approval once the trails are complete and you have jump through all the hoops just to get to the FDA which can be very monumental. Often you get a conditional approval from the FDA which requires additional data and sends you back to the drawing board. Conditional approvals can add another 3-5 years to your timeline. Then after all that you still can be rejected by the FDA even if the market place is demanding the product. There is no opportunity to realize revenue along the way at any point until a product is approved, and only about 1 in 10 products ever makes it through the approval process. If you make it through the FDA you still have a monumental task to either build a world wide sales organization or partner with a company that already has one, and you are still not guaranteed any sales.

My point from the beginning a biotech start up is a gun loaded against you and most investors are prepared for that long lead time and high failure rate, that is why it is probably one of the most heavily shorted stock market sectors.

On the opposite side of the coin most tech companies create a product, then rolls it out, and either succeeds or failures within 3-7 years. They usually get a product out the door very rapidly 1-3 years and get revenue to fund further research and product develop to keep ahead of the competition. VLDI is a very odd ball animal, because it does look like a biotech when it should not. The hurdles for biotech are extremely high, where in the tech world it is rather simple create a product everyone wants and roll it out ASAP and collect revenues if the product is a success. I believe VLDI has not grasp this mantra. Biotech basically succeed or fail on the data out of clinical trials. Tech companies basically succeed or fail based on the first couple years of sales. If you look at Whats App, these guys started their business in a garage over a couple years rolled out a product and within 5 years they had over 500 M end points and growing by 20M per month. That is how it is done. JMO
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