*SCALPSWINGSTRADDLE*

[Zephyr]

Jobless Claims
Released On 2/26/2015 8:30:00 AM For wk2/21, 2015
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
New Claims - Level 283 K 282 K 290 K 279 K to 300 K 313 K
4-week Moving Average - Level 283.25 K 283.00 K 294.50 K
New Claims - Change -21 K -22 K 31 K
Highlights
Initial jobless claims surged unexpectedly in the February 21 week, up 31,000 to a 313,000 level that is far outside the Econoday consensus (279,000 to 300,000). The 4-week average is up 11,500 to 294,500 but is still more than 10,000 below a month ago in a comparison that, despite the latest week's surge, still points to improvement for the labor market.

Data on continuing claims, which are reported with a 1-week lag, are mixed. Continuing claims for the February 14 week fell 21,000 to 2.401 million but the 4-week average rose 2,000 to 2.399 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers is unchanged at a recovery low of 1.8 percent.

The impact of the disappointment for initial claims is likely to be mitigated by a couple of factors: the February 21 week was a week shortened by Presidents' Day, a factor that makes for outsized adjustments to the data, and the prior week, the February 14 week, not the latest week, was the sample week for the monthly employment report.


Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics