Thursday, February 26, 2015 9:24:30 AM
Consumer Price Index
Released On 2/26/2015 8:30:00 AM For Jan, 2015
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
CPI - M/M change -0.4 % -0.3 % -0.6 % -0.8 % to -0.2 % -0.7 %
CPI less food & energy- M/M change 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % to 0.2 % 0.2 %
Highlights
The negative trend at the headline level continues-thanks to the drop in energy. Overall consumer price inflation fell sharp 0.7 after declining 0.3 percent in December. The January number was slightly below the consensus figure of down 0.6 percent. Energy plunged 9.7 percent after dropping 4.7 percent in December. Gasoline plummeted 18.7 percent, following a 9.2 percent fall in December. Food posted at unchanged, following a rise of 0.2 percent in the previous month. Excluding food and energy, consumer price inflation firmed to a 0.2 percent after a modest 0.1 percent rise December. Analysts forecast a 0.1 percent gain.
The shelter index rose 0.3 percent, and the indexes for personal care, for apparel, and for recreation increased as well. The medical care index was unchanged, while an array of indexes declined in January, including those for household furnishings and operations, alcoholic beverages, new vehicles, used cars and trucks, airline fares, and tobacco.
The January report-with the energy based drop at the headline level-fits into Fed chair Janet Yellen description of headline inflation as transitory. But for now, the consumer is gaining more discretionary income and businesses with lower costs.
It is always a good idea to look at more than a few months of data to get a sense of changes in established trends. Monthly changes in the CPI are mainly volatile because of sharp fluctuations in food and energy prices. The core CPI eliminates the sharper fluctuations.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
Yearly changes tend to smooth out more severe monthly fluctuations and give a better idea of the underlying rate of inflation. Even with the smoother trend, note that the core CPI does not fluctuate as much as the total CPI.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
Released On 2/26/2015 8:30:00 AM For Jan, 2015
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
CPI - M/M change -0.4 % -0.3 % -0.6 % -0.8 % to -0.2 % -0.7 %
CPI less food & energy- M/M change 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % to 0.2 % 0.2 %
Highlights
The negative trend at the headline level continues-thanks to the drop in energy. Overall consumer price inflation fell sharp 0.7 after declining 0.3 percent in December. The January number was slightly below the consensus figure of down 0.6 percent. Energy plunged 9.7 percent after dropping 4.7 percent in December. Gasoline plummeted 18.7 percent, following a 9.2 percent fall in December. Food posted at unchanged, following a rise of 0.2 percent in the previous month. Excluding food and energy, consumer price inflation firmed to a 0.2 percent after a modest 0.1 percent rise December. Analysts forecast a 0.1 percent gain.
The shelter index rose 0.3 percent, and the indexes for personal care, for apparel, and for recreation increased as well. The medical care index was unchanged, while an array of indexes declined in January, including those for household furnishings and operations, alcoholic beverages, new vehicles, used cars and trucks, airline fares, and tobacco.
The January report-with the energy based drop at the headline level-fits into Fed chair Janet Yellen description of headline inflation as transitory. But for now, the consumer is gaining more discretionary income and businesses with lower costs.
It is always a good idea to look at more than a few months of data to get a sense of changes in established trends. Monthly changes in the CPI are mainly volatile because of sharp fluctuations in food and energy prices. The core CPI eliminates the sharper fluctuations.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
Yearly changes tend to smooth out more severe monthly fluctuations and give a better idea of the underlying rate of inflation. Even with the smoother trend, note that the core CPI does not fluctuate as much as the total CPI.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
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