Friday, February 06, 2015 9:12:16 AM
Employment Situation
Released On 2/6/2015 8:30:00 AM For Jan, 2015
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change 252,000 329,00 230,000 215,000 to 275,000 257,000
Unemployment Rate - Level 5.6 % 5.6 % 5.5 % to 5.7 % 5.7 %
Private Payrolls - M/M change 240,000 320,000 229,000 215,000 to 268,000 267,000
Participation Rate - level 62.7 % 62.9 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change -0.2 % -0.2 % 0.3 % 0.1 % to 0.4 % 0.5 %
Av Workweek - All Employees 34.6 hrs 34.6 hrs 34.6 hrs 34.5 hrs to 34.6 hrs 34.6 hrs
Highlights
Today's employment situation was heavily positive even though the unemployment rate nudged up. Payroll jobs gained 257,000 in January after strong increases of 329,000 in December and 423,000 in November. December and November were revised up a net 86,000.
The unemployment rate nudged up to 5.7 percent from 5.6 percent in December. The rise was due to a sharp rebound in the labor force.
Turning back to the establishment survey, private payrolls increased 267,000 in January after a 329,000 boost the month before.
The labor force may be tightening a bit as average hourly earnings rebounded 0.5 percent, following a 0.2 percent dip in December. The average workweek held steady at 34.6 hours.
Overall, the latest employment situation suggests that the consumer sector is still the current backbone of the recovery. Also, the labor market has been given an upgrade with upward revisions to November and December. Today's report may nudge the Fed to think about a first increase in policy rates this year rather than next-although still at a slow pace.
During the mature phase of an economic expansion, monthly payrolls gains of 150,000 or so are considered relatively healthy. In the early stages of recovery though, gains are expected to surpass 250,000 per month.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
The civilian unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic activity. During a recession, many people leave the labor force entirely, so the jobless rate may not increase as much as expected. This means that the jobless rate may continue to increase in the early stages of recovery because more people are returning to the labor force as they believe they will be able to find work. The civilian unemployment rate tends towards greater stability than payroll employment on a monthly basis. It reveals the degree to which labor resources are utilized in the economy.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
Released On 2/6/2015 8:30:00 AM For Jan, 2015
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change 252,000 329,00 230,000 215,000 to 275,000 257,000
Unemployment Rate - Level 5.6 % 5.6 % 5.5 % to 5.7 % 5.7 %
Private Payrolls - M/M change 240,000 320,000 229,000 215,000 to 268,000 267,000
Participation Rate - level 62.7 % 62.9 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change -0.2 % -0.2 % 0.3 % 0.1 % to 0.4 % 0.5 %
Av Workweek - All Employees 34.6 hrs 34.6 hrs 34.6 hrs 34.5 hrs to 34.6 hrs 34.6 hrs
Highlights
Today's employment situation was heavily positive even though the unemployment rate nudged up. Payroll jobs gained 257,000 in January after strong increases of 329,000 in December and 423,000 in November. December and November were revised up a net 86,000.
The unemployment rate nudged up to 5.7 percent from 5.6 percent in December. The rise was due to a sharp rebound in the labor force.
Turning back to the establishment survey, private payrolls increased 267,000 in January after a 329,000 boost the month before.
The labor force may be tightening a bit as average hourly earnings rebounded 0.5 percent, following a 0.2 percent dip in December. The average workweek held steady at 34.6 hours.
Overall, the latest employment situation suggests that the consumer sector is still the current backbone of the recovery. Also, the labor market has been given an upgrade with upward revisions to November and December. Today's report may nudge the Fed to think about a first increase in policy rates this year rather than next-although still at a slow pace.
During the mature phase of an economic expansion, monthly payrolls gains of 150,000 or so are considered relatively healthy. In the early stages of recovery though, gains are expected to surpass 250,000 per month.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
The civilian unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic activity. During a recession, many people leave the labor force entirely, so the jobless rate may not increase as much as expected. This means that the jobless rate may continue to increase in the early stages of recovery because more people are returning to the labor force as they believe they will be able to find work. The civilian unemployment rate tends towards greater stability than payroll employment on a monthly basis. It reveals the degree to which labor resources are utilized in the economy.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
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