The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[OakesCS]

I don't think shale is relevant. States with large oil industry related work forces will see a bump in unemployment. The 3 largest service companies will likely lose at least 20k people although not all of those will be in the US. North American producers will easily exceed that number. If you can find a number for US workers in the oil and gas industry (sans refineries), then multiply it by 0.1 and I'd guess that will be on the low side.