Thursday, January 22, 2015 8:54:37 AM
Jobless Claims
Released On 1/22/2015 8:30:00 AM For wk1/17, 2015
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
New Claims - Level 316 K 317 K 300 K 289 K to 305 K 307 K
4-week Moving Average - Level 298.00 K 300.00 K 306.50 K
New Claims - Change 19 K 13 K -10 K
Highlights
Jobless claims have been inching higher and are not pointing to increasing strength for the January employment report. Initial claims did fall 10,000 in the January 17 week but to a 307,000 level that is just outside the high end of the Econoday consensus range (289,000 to 305,000).
The January 17 week is the sample week for the monthly employment report and a comparison with the December sample week shows a sizable 18,000 increase. The current 4-week average at 306,500 is up 6,500 from the prior week for the highest reading since way back in July. A sample-week to sample-week comparison for the average shows a 7,750 increase this month.
Continuing claims, which are reported with a 1-week lag, have also been on the increase. Continuing claims for the January 10 week rose 15,000 to 2.443 million with the 4-week average up 9,000 to 2.427 million. This average has also been on the rise and is up 8,000 from the month-ago comparison. The unemployment rate for insured workers is unchanged at 1.8 percent.
There are no special factors in today's report, one where levels are healthy but not improving.
Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
Released On 1/22/2015 8:30:00 AM For wk1/17, 2015
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
New Claims - Level 316 K 317 K 300 K 289 K to 305 K 307 K
4-week Moving Average - Level 298.00 K 300.00 K 306.50 K
New Claims - Change 19 K 13 K -10 K
Highlights
Jobless claims have been inching higher and are not pointing to increasing strength for the January employment report. Initial claims did fall 10,000 in the January 17 week but to a 307,000 level that is just outside the high end of the Econoday consensus range (289,000 to 305,000).
The January 17 week is the sample week for the monthly employment report and a comparison with the December sample week shows a sizable 18,000 increase. The current 4-week average at 306,500 is up 6,500 from the prior week for the highest reading since way back in July. A sample-week to sample-week comparison for the average shows a 7,750 increase this month.
Continuing claims, which are reported with a 1-week lag, have also been on the increase. Continuing claims for the January 10 week rose 15,000 to 2.443 million with the 4-week average up 9,000 to 2.427 million. This average has also been on the rise and is up 8,000 from the month-ago comparison. The unemployment rate for insured workers is unchanged at 1.8 percent.
There are no special factors in today's report, one where levels are healthy but not improving.
Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
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