You ask some interesting questions. The need to complete effective due diligence is an oft used phrase. As it turns out, I have done a fair amount. Without getting too overwhelming or appearing to be redundant, here is what you should know as relates to Pfizer and their efforts with ADT.
Pfizer paid about $3.6 Billion in 2011 to acquire King Pharma and Embeda. The also got Epi-pen in the deal and that may be the greater money maker. But not worth $3.6 Billion...However, that is only part of the story.
In 2007, King entered an agreement with Acura Pharma, which has a tech called Aversion. The purpose of the deal was...wait for it...to help commercialize King's ADT (including Embeda). Fast forward to 2011, 8 months after the King deal, Pfizer enters an agreement with Acura for them to help with ADT/Embeda. Some very nice royalty payments are made to Acura. At the time their p/s was about $3.22 and analysts expected it to double. In July 2013, Pfizer and Acura expanded their agreement to Oxceta tablets (Embeda was still a problem). In April 2014 Pfizer terminated their agreement and Acura paid $2 Million to get their Aversion tech back; which they are still trying to make work. Oh, yes...today's p/s for Acura is about 58 cents. Obviously, it never doubled (this despite some solid TA supporting that rise - go figure).
Given the zaniness of their effort to acquire ADT, my managerial experience tells me Pfizer would be interested, but very cautious. I suspect Pfizer would need to see an NDA filing and an FDA offer to expedite approval. However, at that point, we should expect more than Pfizer would be interested and the price would be a multiple of the $1.06 Billion for which Pfizer sold Nucyenta. And, they have the cash!!! So, what would they pay? It depends...
