The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[DewDiligence]

Two commentaries on future oil prices…

A bearish analysis from a think tank economist:
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/oil-prices-ceiling-and-floor-by-anatole-kaletsky-2015-01

Under this competitive logic, the marginal cost of US shale oil would become a ceiling for global oil prices, whereas the costs of relatively remote and marginal conventional oilfields in OPEC and Russia would set a floor. As it happens, estimates of shale-oil production costs are mostly around $50, while marginal conventional oilfields generally break even at around $20. Thus, the trading range in the brave new world of competitive oil should be roughly $20 to $50.

A less bearish view from UAE’s oil minister:
http://www.advfn.com/news_Oil-Prices-Start-Week-Deep-in-Negative-Territory_65152612.html

United Arab Emirates’ oil minister Suhail Mohamed Faraj al-Mazrouei said on Monday [Jan 19] that low crude oil prices are unlikely to last in the long-term.

“I doubt it is going to last for very long because I’m a believer in sustainable development in the oil sector and that sustainable development cannot be achieved at the current prices,” he said.

If you don’t agree with either of the above, you can fall back on the write-up by “538” in #msg-109507836 that says accurately forecasting oil prices is all but impossible.