Friday, January 16, 2015 8:55:10 AM
Consumer Price Index
Released On 1/16/2015 8:30:00 AM For Dec, 2014
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
CPI - M/M change -0.3 % -0.4 % -0.6 % to -0.2 % -0.4 %
CPI - Y/Y change 1.3 % 0.7 %
CPI less food & energy- M/M change 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.0 % to 0.2 % 0.0 %
CPI less food & energy - Y/Y change 1.7 % 1.6 %
Highlights
Consumer price inflation continued to be negative on lower energy prices. Overall consumer price inflation fell another 0.4 percent in December after falling 0.3 percent November. The December figure matched market expectations for a 0.4 percent drop and was the largest decrease since 2008. Energy plunged 4.7 percent after dropping 3.8 percent in November. Gasoline dropped a huge 9.4 percent, following a plunge of 6.6 percent in November. Food, however, gained 0.3 percent, following a rise of 0.2 percent in the previous month. Excluding food and energy, consumer price inflation slowed to unchanged after a modest 0.1 percent in rise November. Analysts projected a 0.1 percent gain.
Within the core, the shelter index continued to rise (up 0.2 percent), and the index for medical care posted its largest increase (up 0.5 percent) since August 2013. However, these increases were offset by declines in a broad array of indexes including apparel, airline fares, used cars and trucks, household furnishings and operations, and new vehicles.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the headline CPI was up year-ago 0.7 percent versus 1.3 percent in November. Excluding food and energy, the year-ago rate was 1.6 percent, compared to 1.7 percent the previous month.
The December CPI report plays into the hands of the Fed doves. Inflation is below 2 percent goal and is actually moving in the wrong direction for a Fed that wants to boost inflation and asset prices. The positive, however, is that consumer spending power continues to improve.
is always a good idea to look at more than a few months of data to get a sense of changes in established trends. Monthly changes in the CPI are mainly volatile because of sharp fluctuations in food and energy prices. The core CPI eliminates the sharper fluctuations.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
Yearly changes tend to smooth out more severe monthly fluctuations and give a better idea of the underlying rate of inflation. Even with the smoother trend, note that the core CPI does not fluctuate as much as the total CPI.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
Released On 1/16/2015 8:30:00 AM For Dec, 2014
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
CPI - M/M change -0.3 % -0.4 % -0.6 % to -0.2 % -0.4 %
CPI - Y/Y change 1.3 % 0.7 %
CPI less food & energy- M/M change 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.0 % to 0.2 % 0.0 %
CPI less food & energy - Y/Y change 1.7 % 1.6 %
Highlights
Consumer price inflation continued to be negative on lower energy prices. Overall consumer price inflation fell another 0.4 percent in December after falling 0.3 percent November. The December figure matched market expectations for a 0.4 percent drop and was the largest decrease since 2008. Energy plunged 4.7 percent after dropping 3.8 percent in November. Gasoline dropped a huge 9.4 percent, following a plunge of 6.6 percent in November. Food, however, gained 0.3 percent, following a rise of 0.2 percent in the previous month. Excluding food and energy, consumer price inflation slowed to unchanged after a modest 0.1 percent in rise November. Analysts projected a 0.1 percent gain.
Within the core, the shelter index continued to rise (up 0.2 percent), and the index for medical care posted its largest increase (up 0.5 percent) since August 2013. However, these increases were offset by declines in a broad array of indexes including apparel, airline fares, used cars and trucks, household furnishings and operations, and new vehicles.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the headline CPI was up year-ago 0.7 percent versus 1.3 percent in November. Excluding food and energy, the year-ago rate was 1.6 percent, compared to 1.7 percent the previous month.
The December CPI report plays into the hands of the Fed doves. Inflation is below 2 percent goal and is actually moving in the wrong direction for a Fed that wants to boost inflation and asset prices. The positive, however, is that consumer spending power continues to improve.
is always a good idea to look at more than a few months of data to get a sense of changes in established trends. Monthly changes in the CPI are mainly volatile because of sharp fluctuations in food and energy prices. The core CPI eliminates the sharper fluctuations.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
Yearly changes tend to smooth out more severe monthly fluctuations and give a better idea of the underlying rate of inflation. Even with the smoother trend, note that the core CPI does not fluctuate as much as the total CPI.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
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