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Re: BowlerBob post# 38901

Sunday, 12/28/2014 10:11:56 AM

Sunday, December 28, 2014 10:11:56 AM

Post# of 47133

why not start a "Virtual AIM Program" in the stocks/ETFs/Mutual Funds of your choosing, beginning in January. Since there are an average of 21 trading days per month, you might start 21 new programs in January, one for each trading day -- once you have it set up, it would likely take only 10 minutes, or less, per day


For 10% SAFE, 5% minimum trade size B and S are always 1.15 and 0.85 respectively (see below).

Portfolio control is always the same as the initial stock value amount at the offset.

So more like a 10 second initial calculation and a quick look up check at each review when running a paper based record set.

N = Portfolio Control divided by Number of Shares

For AIM next sell calculate S = 1 - SAFE - Minimum Trade Size %
i.e. 10% safe, 5% Minimum Trade Size S = 1 - 0.1 - 0.05 = 0.85

For AIM next buy calculate B = 1 + SAFE + Minimum Trade Size %
i.e. 10% safe, 5% Minimum Trade Size B = 1 + 0.1 + 0.05 = 1.15

AIM Next Sell Price = N / S
AIM Next Buy Price = N / B

I've wondered whether if you had a lump sum to invest and ran enough virtual AIM's, buying for real whenever any one indicated a buy trade, as more often there's something always down, whether that overall would work out better than lumping all in at one time. Generally each buy trade would be at a discount of 15% below that single lump sum time/date ... and repeated across x number of AIM's that's somewhat like having lumped in at a 15% total portfolio discount.

Over ten years if a stock gains 4%/year in price and pays a 4% dividend, then buying at a 15% discount = 5.7% annualised capital gain assuming mean reversion (7.2% if you sold at a 15% premium). And in buying at a 15% discount a 4% dividend rises to 4.7%. 11.9% annualised compared to 8% total gains if bought at a discount, sold at a premium across the ten years.

Providing the candidate stocks were wide/diverse enough, and you limited allocations to each actual stock to a modestly wide/diverse enough set, then there's no reason to expect the actual holdings to broadly deviate from that of the wider market average (but with the added benefit of potentially having bought at a discount, sold at a premium).

This for example sets up 30 AIM's on the Dow assuming a (virtual) $10,000 allocation each, $5000 initial stock value and shows the next buy price in each case given the most recent trade prices

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/cp?s=^DJI Price PC #S N = Buy Sell
American Express Company 94.29 5000 53.03 94.29 81.99 110.93
The Boeing Company 131.63 5000 37.99 131.63 114.46 154.86
Caterpillar Inc. 94.23 5000 53.06 94.23 81.94 110.86
Cisco Systems, Inc. 28.35 5000 176.37 28.35 24.65 33.35
Chevron Corporation 113.25 5000 44.15 113.25 98.48 133.24
E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company 75.13 5000 66.55 75.13 65.33 88.39
The Walt Disney Company 95.03 5000 52.61 95.03 82.63 111.80
General Electric Company 25.78 5000 193.95 25.78 22.42 30.33
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. 195.45 5000 25.58 195.45 169.96 229.94
The Home Depot, Inc. 103.75 5000 48.19 103.75 90.22 122.06
International Business Machines Corporation 162.34 5000 30.80 162.34 141.17 190.99
Intel Corporation 37.55 5000 133.16 37.55 32.65 44.18
Johnson & Johnson 105.06 5000 47.59 105.06 91.36 123.60
JPMorgan Chase & Co. 62.55 5000 79.94 62.55 54.39 73.59
The Coca-Cola Company 42.96 5000 116.39 42.96 37.36 50.54
McDonald's Corp. 94.78 5000 52.75 94.78 82.42 111.51
3M Company 166.26 5000 30.07 166.26 144.57 195.60
Merck & Co. Inc. 57.78 5000 86.54 57.78 50.24 67.98
Microsoft Corporation 47.88 5000 104.43 47.88 41.63 56.33
Nike, Inc. 96.83 5000 51.64 96.83 84.20 113.92
Pfizer Inc. 31.65 5000 157.98 31.65 27.52 37.24
The Procter & Gamble Company 93.46 5000 53.50 93.46 81.27 109.95
AT&T, Inc. 34.17 5000 146.33 34.17 29.71 40.20
The Travelers Companies, Inc. 106.7 5000 46.86 106.70 92.78 125.53
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated 102.55 5000 48.76 102.55 89.17 120.65
United Technologies Corporation 117.24 5000 42.65 117.24 101.95 137.93
Visa Inc. 266.62 5000 18.75 266.62 231.84 313.67
Verizon Communications Inc. 47.86 5000 104.47 47.86 41.62 56.31
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. 86.91 5000 57.53 86.91 75.57 102.25
Exxon Mobil Corporation 93.21 5000 53.64 93.21 81.05 109.66


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