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Re: jessellivermore post# 40283

Tuesday, 12/23/2014 8:50:57 PM

Tuesday, December 23, 2014 8:50:57 PM

Post# of 426317
Jesse: Biotech has entered a New Order of the Universe, and
may take a year or more to recover, albeit at lower valuations.
I am expecting a correction of at least 15% or more. The reason is interesting, in that BIO and PHRMA, the two Industry Organizations negotiated with the Govt in 2009, agreeing to give $80B over the next decade to help fund Obama Care. In return, the Govt agreed to write into the ACA a provision whereby they relinquish the right to negotiate Drug Prices, a major Industry win. Yesterday, as you probably know, Express Scripts cut a deal with Abbvie for their Hep C drug, which is IMO significantly inferior to Gilead's Hep C drug Harvoni. Abbvie gave ESRX a reported 23% discount to the sticker price. In return ESRX gave Abbvie exclusivity , taking Gilead's Harvoni off their formulary. This will cause price slashing of Newly Innovated , as well as currently marketed drugs. Bottom line a Price War ! The loss of pricing power will take all the multiples down and IMO continue the Biotech sell off. I believe it will significantly decrease the flow of risk capital into the sector, and decrease innovation. I would appreciate your thoughts on the matter. Thanks !
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