A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board

[SFSecurity]

Hi Jaiml, I'm not sure why the difference myself. I used the original AIMBARES.XLS spreadsheet, not my modified version. My version also got 32 shares for the first trade and 51 for the second, a total of 83 for the delayed buy.

I'm not completely clear on how to apply Orcrofts method myself. What I have been looking for is a weekly price that is at or above the last suggested buy signal. This does not account for market volatility, as happened to me a few days ago where the price gaped down after my buy and has not yet recovered. This is why I started looking at the 52 week low as one possible metric. In looking back over several years it seems that if you buy near the 52 week low or when it breaks down below it, you will be as close to the best you can do going forward. This works for an up market, but when we hit a slide like 2007/9 then it looks like you have to be sure of following it down before buying in otherwise you will still have a ways to go to hit bottom.

I'm checking a combination of AIM reversal, 52 week low and leading indicators. For example, BECN, a roofing company, hit its low in December 2007, 15 months ahead of the market as a whole. BIG, Big Lots, hit its low in December 2007, although in February 2009 it went 50 cents lower, but since then, even it one had bought in at the end of January 2008 at $17.36, you would still have done well:

 # Intervals    Percentage	 Beginning	Ending 
 		 CGR		 Value	        Value 
 Year	7.00	12.47%		$10,000.00	$22,758.40 
 Month	84.00	0.98%			 
 Week	363.72	0.23%			 
 

The big problem is finding the leading indicators. Also I think one needs to follow them on a weekly basis for several weeks to confirm their trend and compare them to the 52 week low and the AIM trend reversal.

Best,

Allen