Friday, November 07, 2014 8:50:26 AM
Employment Situation - mixed
Released On 11/7/2014 8:30:00 AM For Oct, 2014
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change 248,000 256,000 240,000 200,000 to 282,000 214,00
Unemployment Rate - Level 5.9 % 5.9 % 5.8 % to 6.0 % 5.8 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.2 % to 0.3 % 0.1 %
Av Workweek - All Employees 34.6 hrs 34.5 hrs 34.6 hrs 34.5 hrs to 34.6 hrs 34.6 hrs
Private Payrolls - M/M change 236,000 244,000 235,000 205,000 to 277,000 209,000
Highlights
The October employment situation was mixed. Payroll jobs advanced but below expectations. The unemployment rate ticked down again. But wages remained soft. The data will let the Fed remain loose.
Nonfarm payroll jobs advanced 214,000 in October after gaining 256,000 September and 203,000 in August. Net revisions for August and September were up 31,000. The median market forecast for October was for a 240,000 boost.
The unemployment rate dipped to 5.8 percent in October from 5.9 percent in September. Expectations were for 5.9 percent.
Going back to the payroll report, private payrolls grew 209,000 after advancing 244,000 in September. Analysts projected 235,000.
Average hourly earnings edged up 0.1 percent after no change in September. Market forecasts were for 0.2 percent. Average weekly hours ticked up to 34.6 hours versus 34.5 hours in September. Projections were for 34.6 hours.
Essentially, the labor market is improving but slowly and remains soft. Based on today's data and unless the numbers strengthen faster the Fed likely will not rush increases in policy rates.
During the mature phase of an economic expansion, monthly payrolls gains of 150,000 or so are considered relatively healthy. In the early stages of recovery though, gains are expected to surpass 250,000 per month.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
The civilian unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic activity. During a recession, many people leave the labor force entirely, so the jobless rate may not increase as much as expected. This means that the jobless rate may continue to increase in the early stages of recovery because more people are returning to the labor force as they believe they will be able to find work. The civilian unemployment rate tends towards greater stability than payroll employment on a monthly basis. It reveals the degree to which labor resources are utilized in the economy.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
Released On 11/7/2014 8:30:00 AM For Oct, 2014
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change 248,000 256,000 240,000 200,000 to 282,000 214,00
Unemployment Rate - Level 5.9 % 5.9 % 5.8 % to 6.0 % 5.8 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.2 % to 0.3 % 0.1 %
Av Workweek - All Employees 34.6 hrs 34.5 hrs 34.6 hrs 34.5 hrs to 34.6 hrs 34.6 hrs
Private Payrolls - M/M change 236,000 244,000 235,000 205,000 to 277,000 209,000
Highlights
The October employment situation was mixed. Payroll jobs advanced but below expectations. The unemployment rate ticked down again. But wages remained soft. The data will let the Fed remain loose.
Nonfarm payroll jobs advanced 214,000 in October after gaining 256,000 September and 203,000 in August. Net revisions for August and September were up 31,000. The median market forecast for October was for a 240,000 boost.
The unemployment rate dipped to 5.8 percent in October from 5.9 percent in September. Expectations were for 5.9 percent.
Going back to the payroll report, private payrolls grew 209,000 after advancing 244,000 in September. Analysts projected 235,000.
Average hourly earnings edged up 0.1 percent after no change in September. Market forecasts were for 0.2 percent. Average weekly hours ticked up to 34.6 hours versus 34.5 hours in September. Projections were for 34.6 hours.
Essentially, the labor market is improving but slowly and remains soft. Based on today's data and unless the numbers strengthen faster the Fed likely will not rush increases in policy rates.
During the mature phase of an economic expansion, monthly payrolls gains of 150,000 or so are considered relatively healthy. In the early stages of recovery though, gains are expected to surpass 250,000 per month.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
The civilian unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic activity. During a recession, many people leave the labor force entirely, so the jobless rate may not increase as much as expected. This means that the jobless rate may continue to increase in the early stages of recovery because more people are returning to the labor force as they believe they will be able to find work. The civilian unemployment rate tends towards greater stability than payroll employment on a monthly basis. It reveals the degree to which labor resources are utilized in the economy.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
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