I do think it's position. You are looking at it upside down. First let's establish a baseline of vocabulary. For purposes of this analysis let's define mature branches as those that have been opened at least 1 year in the 3rd quarter as that looks to be the biggest quarter.
2012 1.18mm average with 0% mature branches open
2013 1.07mm average with 30% mature branches open
2014 780k average with 45% mature branches open.
The branches that are 1 yr+ during the 3rd quarter are paying for everything. Over half the branches have had less than 9 Mos operating. If he says it take a year to get them to 1.5mm per branch that's what we have to measure. Is he doing that? And if he is, we have a reasonable expectation that with 55% offices being new, forward revenue growth looks very good.
So is he doing that?
2012-cant measure because in q3 ALL offices were less than a year old. I do have to say that the first year ramp up was much better than others.
2013-6 offices were open 1yr+. From the 2013 10k:For the six branches in place at December 31, 2012 revenue has increased 86% for the year ended December 31, 2013.
7mm in revenue from those 6 in 2012 x 1.86=13.02mm from those 6 in 2013. It doesn't provide this sales number in the K but the information is there to figure it.
So the 6 from 2012 made up 78% of 2013 revenue and average was 2.1mm per branch.
We can't break down 2014 yet but the trend from the monthly PRS show the same. We can also see now that same store revenue growth is more reasonable. 100+% is nice and all but not sustainable. 8-10% should be the bar imo.
So if he slows new office openings for next year (I'd like to see 0 organic) and focuses on acquisitions, the ones opened this year will start kicking in profit.
Long winded..sorry. I should just load up my entire DD file. Is there a way to do that on ihub?
