*SCALPSWINGSTRADDLE*

[Zephyr]

Retail Sales
Released On 10/15/2014 8:30:00 AM For Sep, 2014
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Retail Sales - M/M change 0.6 % -0.1 % -0.5 % to 0.3 % -0.3 %
Retail Sales less autos - M/M change 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.0 % to 0.9 % -0.2 %
Less Autos & Gas - M/M Change 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.3 % to 0.6 % -0.1 %
Highlights
As expected, auto sales and gasoline sales tugged down on retail sales in September. But core numbers were weaker than expected. Retail sales in September declined 0.3 percent after jumping 0.6 percent in August. Analysts forecast a 0.1 percent dip for September. Excluding autos, sales slipped 0.2 percent after gaining 0.3 percent in August. Expectations were for a 0.3 percent increase. Excluding both autos and gasoline sales dipped 0.1 percent, following a jump of 0.5 percent in August. Expectations were for 0.5 percent.

Nearly 75 percent of the time, changes in monthly retail sales are between +1 percent and -1 percent. However, there are many months in which the monthly change falls outside that range. Most of the time, excessive increases or decreases are due to higher/lower spending on motor vehicle sales. Year-over-year changes in retail sales can be volatile as well, but tend to be smoother than monthly changes.
Data Source: Haver Analytics