My Plan and My Execution....
(and a bit of advice that I hope might help)
For those that follow me you know that I am basically a Bear. But you also know I play both sides. Luckily, I have been right with my call on the market since the beginning of the summer. I've sold the rallies and bought the bottoms. My most recent calls were to buy Calls a week before BABA IPO with the plan to sell a couple of days after BABA day as I thought that we be the top of the market. As BABA day rolled around I sold all of my Calls. I was going to wait until Monday or Tuesday after that but the market told me that it was time to buy Puts that Friday and not to wait. So I adjusted my plan (very important that you can adapt to market conditions) and I jumped into a boatload of puts. My call was for the market to test $192ish with a chance at $190 and to bounce to $195-$197 (depending on where it turned. I sold all of my Puts when SPY broke $192.90 to the downside and I was going to wait to see if it broke $192. If it broke I was going to play more Puts an d if it held I was going to jump into Calls for the bounce. Well it turned so hard so fast at $193.36 that I didn't jump into Calls. I still thought it needed to test $192.
So that was play #1 I missed.
So when we got that huge spike that day I mentioned that I was looking for a Gap up the next morning and that I was going to jump into puts in a big way. I had bought a few calls as well for the ride. Well it didn't Gap up and came down pretty good. I didn't get the chance to sell the market again (Missed play #2). I don't like to miss plays that I have planned for so my next play was to watch $195. To me that was a major Level. It if held and bounced I figured I'd get the chance to jump into Puts at $197 but if it broke I was gonna jump into a boatload of Puts when it broke $195. Well it broke $195 and the market tanked. I did very well on the Puts and I got out of all of them when SPY broke $192.90.
When I jumped into the Puts I had laid out to the Chat room my plan. I thought the market was not only going to test $192.36 again but that it would ultimately fail and then test $190 - $190.50. My plan was that when SPY broke $191 to the downside that I was going to jump into Calls in a big way for a bounce to $194-$195. That is what I did. In the last 12 minutes of the day Friday I jumped into a ton of Calls (plays will be posted on a separate post). BTW I think after this bounce we will test $185-$188 with a possibility that we even test the $180 level.
So why am I telling you this? I'm not doing this to brag but to try and explain the importance of having a plan. I will now cut and paste posts I made to the chat room yesterday so it can hopefully help out some traders and make them better....
2014-10-10 07:31:23 AM retiredmm I have very opinions on the market and I have outlined to you over the past few weeks.
2014-10-10 07:32:20 AM retiredmm Well I think we will be seeing $190-$190.50 (probably today) with a hard quick bounce to $195ish
2014-10-10 07:32:36 AM retiredmm So what does that mean to me?
2014-10-10 07:32:59 AM retiredmm It means I should do my homework and prepare for my next set of plays
2014-10-10 07:33:48 AM retiredmm So last night before and after the NY Rangers game (BTW Let's Go Rangers!!) i planned and set up my next set of plays
2014-10-10 07:35:00 AM retiredmm Trading is not about 9:30 -4:00 it is about the time after that. It is about planning your strategy and then implementing it during hours
2014-10-10 07:36:43 AM retiredmm So knowing what my thesis is I developed my plan. I set up a new screen (i can have 4 separate screens in etrade) and I set one up just for my bounce plays for when the market breaks $191
2014-10-10 07:38:52 AM retiredmm This screen has a watchlist but it also has multiple market depth screens with diff stocks/ETF's set up on each one with order entry screens set up to press a button to execute when i'm ready
2014-10-10 07:40:46 AM retiredmm When the market reaches near my levels I will start making my first dips into buying calls. If we get the flush early I will be getting today OPEX calls near the closing prices from yesterday and I will be getting higher ones for next week.
2014-10-10 07:41:57 AM retiredmm So I did my homework and I have identified the stocks that I feel are ripe for a bounce and i identified the levels where i think they will bounce to
2014-10-10 07:43:11 AM retiredmm The point i'm trying to make here is that the real work isn't done during market hours but after market hours. The execution part comes during market hours.
2014-10-10 07:43:55 AM retiredmm It's like a football game. You game plan all week. You make the moves necessary to be able to succeed gametime
2014-10-10 07:44:19 AM retiredmm then of course you have to execute during the day
2014-10-10 07:46:00 AM retiredmm So now I have my plan. if the market does what I think today then i will execute, if it doesn't then my game plan has to change. I will not force it. I will stick to my plan. If the market doesn't flush today then the plan gets put on hold because my thesis isn't changing yet.
2014-10-10 07:52:59 AM retiredmm So right now the market can't make up it's mind. If we have an up day today I will continue to be a seller. If it goes down marginally I will wait and do nothing new (just stick with what I have). I think we will flush, I think we will bounce hard and then I think we fall again and then go into the $185-$187 area. Remember, I've been calling for an Ugly October.
2014-10-10 07:53:38 AM retiredmm So if we flush, I execute the plan, if we rally, I'm a seller, if no big moves I do nothing
2014-10-10 07:55:53 AM retiredmm Remember all..... Plan Plan Plan.... Set yourself up to Execute and.... if your thesis is correct execute the plan.
2014-10-10 07:57:21 AM retiredmm Don't execute the plan if your thesis doesn't hold (don't just jump in and buy because market is turning earlier than you thought because the majority of times it will cost you and big)
