Friday, October 03, 2014 10:00:14 AM
Employment Situation
Released On 10/3/2014 8:30:00 AM For Sep, 2014
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change 142,000 180,000 215,000 185,000 to 289,000 248,000
Unemployment Rate - Level 6.1 % 6.1 % 6.0 % to 6.2 % 5.9 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change 0.2 % 0.3 % 0.2 % 0.1 % to 0.3 % 0.0 %
Av Workweek - All Employees 34.5 hrs 34.5 hrs 34.5 hrs to 34.5 hrs 34.6 hrs
Private Payrolls - M/M change 134,000 175,000 215,000 185,000 to 281,000 236,000
Highlights
Nonfarm payroll jobs gained 248,000, after a 180,000 rise in August and 243,000 increase in July. Net revisions for July and August were up a sharp 69,000. The median market forecast for September was for a 215,000 gain.
The unemployment rate declined to 5.9 percent from 6.1 percent in August. Expectations were for 6.1 percent.
Going back to the payroll report, private payrolls advanced 236,000 in September after a 175,000 boost in August. Expectations were for 215,000.
Goods-producing jobs jumped 29,000 in September after a 14,000 rise the month before. Manufacturing employment increased 4,000 in September, following a decrease of 4,000 in August. Motor vehicles and parts lost 5,000 jobs in August, after adding 13,000 jobs in July. Auto workers lost 1,000 jobs after a 7,000 boost in August. Construction advanced 16,000 in each of the two latest months. Mining jumped 9,000 in September, following a 2,000 rise in August.
Private service-providing jobs jumped 207,000 after a 161,000 gain in August. Strength was seen in professional & business services and retail trade.
Average hourly earnings were unchanged in September after a 0.3 percent rise the month before. Average weekly hours ticked up to 34.6 hours versus 34.5 hours in August and expectations for 34.5 hours.
Overall, job growth improved while wage inflation remained soft. The Fed still has many options for policy.
During the mature phase of an economic expansion, monthly payrolls gains of 150,000 or so are considered relatively healthy. In the early stages of recovery though, gains are expected to surpass 250,000 per month.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
The civilian unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic activity. During a recession, many people leave the labor force entirely, so the jobless rate may not increase as much as expected. This means that the jobless rate may continue to increase in the early stages of recovery because more people are returning to the labor force as they believe they will be able to find work. The civilian unemployment rate tends towards greater stability than payroll employment on a monthly basis. It reveals the degree to which labor resources are utilized in the economy.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
Released On 10/3/2014 8:30:00 AM For Sep, 2014
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change 142,000 180,000 215,000 185,000 to 289,000 248,000
Unemployment Rate - Level 6.1 % 6.1 % 6.0 % to 6.2 % 5.9 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change 0.2 % 0.3 % 0.2 % 0.1 % to 0.3 % 0.0 %
Av Workweek - All Employees 34.5 hrs 34.5 hrs 34.5 hrs to 34.5 hrs 34.6 hrs
Private Payrolls - M/M change 134,000 175,000 215,000 185,000 to 281,000 236,000
Highlights
Nonfarm payroll jobs gained 248,000, after a 180,000 rise in August and 243,000 increase in July. Net revisions for July and August were up a sharp 69,000. The median market forecast for September was for a 215,000 gain.
The unemployment rate declined to 5.9 percent from 6.1 percent in August. Expectations were for 6.1 percent.
Going back to the payroll report, private payrolls advanced 236,000 in September after a 175,000 boost in August. Expectations were for 215,000.
Goods-producing jobs jumped 29,000 in September after a 14,000 rise the month before. Manufacturing employment increased 4,000 in September, following a decrease of 4,000 in August. Motor vehicles and parts lost 5,000 jobs in August, after adding 13,000 jobs in July. Auto workers lost 1,000 jobs after a 7,000 boost in August. Construction advanced 16,000 in each of the two latest months. Mining jumped 9,000 in September, following a 2,000 rise in August.
Private service-providing jobs jumped 207,000 after a 161,000 gain in August. Strength was seen in professional & business services and retail trade.
Average hourly earnings were unchanged in September after a 0.3 percent rise the month before. Average weekly hours ticked up to 34.6 hours versus 34.5 hours in August and expectations for 34.5 hours.
Overall, job growth improved while wage inflation remained soft. The Fed still has many options for policy.
During the mature phase of an economic expansion, monthly payrolls gains of 150,000 or so are considered relatively healthy. In the early stages of recovery though, gains are expected to surpass 250,000 per month.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
The civilian unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic activity. During a recession, many people leave the labor force entirely, so the jobless rate may not increase as much as expected. This means that the jobless rate may continue to increase in the early stages of recovery because more people are returning to the labor force as they believe they will be able to find work. The civilian unemployment rate tends towards greater stability than payroll employment on a monthly basis. It reveals the degree to which labor resources are utilized in the economy.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
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