I've been thinking a lot about it the last couple of days and I'm not sure how much any of these milestones other than the Phase 2b plans will actually move the price. In the last 12 months the company has basically said that they are going in a completely new direction. I invested here in November 2013 thinking that Immunopulse as a monotherapy would be what ultimately generated revenue for this company and where upon the valuation would be based. That's what hooked me in. However, since then, they've decided that Immunopulse's future will be primarily, if not strictly, in combination with anti-PD1 therapy.
With that in mind, we probably need to take a step back and remember that ALL of our current trials are using Immunopulse as a monotherapy. So in other words, we essentially have no current trials using the future revenue generating piece of the puzzle. This may be a bad analogy, but it's almost like investing in an automobile company who currently only makes cars, but has said they'll stop making cars soon and only make trucks in the future, beginning in a few months. Investors might consider it a huge gamble investing in that company until they at least see that they have the capability to actually manufacture trucks. Well Phase 2b is ONCS' proof that they can stop making cars and start making trucks.
Until the Phase 2b plans are announced, it is reasonable for some to question whether the FDA will even approve the trial. For those of us who have been here a while and understand Immunopulse has ZERO SAE's we don't see that as a risk, but it is logical that a potential investor might.
I guess the point of my rant is the entire future revenue stream (based on what we know now) is dependent on a combination therapy with Anti-PD1. Until they actually launch a trial, we don't even know for sure that that is a possibility. Once that trial is "formally" announced, I think it will open the flood gates and eliminate a ton of uncertainty that might exist out there right now. That's why I really don't know how much the other milestones will help, I think it all hinges upon Phase 2b.
