Rhen, fair enough comment.
You definitely reserve the right to say "I told you so."
Though you have clearly stated your projected revenue projections (more reasonable than most), you have omitted your dilution assumptions. According to my research, Dec 31, 2015 dilution is already at ~14m shares outstanding when using the two ESOP agreements. The 87% unvested remaining on the 2013 deal and the 2/5ths vesting by 12/15 on the just approved new 5 year deal. We also have to calculate the annual grants to the BOD and revenue goal achievement bonuses and any marketing partnerships that may occur before said date. Using historical data as a guide, then 15m-18m outstanding is more likely than not by 12/15.
Using the historical figures I provide on the yoy dilution growth, where does that leave your EPS projection?
New Costco numbers are very important in my view, as is an assumption of some expanding marketing program with the UFC on a new product like Amino 1 (now that the UFC has dissolved its deal with Xyience last week) . Without new sales channels or expanded growth in existing, things are looking pretty toppy in the next Q or two. Let me make it clear that I am calling Q4 '14 and Q1 '15 as likely near term saturation IMO. It may happen sooner but barring something huge, I don't see $300m+ by 2016 and dilution should keep this a zero sum game for existing shareholders.
Feel free to disagree but I feel strongly that Brad's recent open market purchases are a sign of his desperation to show the SEC he has learned a lesson about aligning his interest with the common shareholder while he awards himself another 500k shares for free just last month. Brad is desperate to use the NASDAQ as a catalyst (hence his outrageous conference call predictions about resolution occurring in Q1 or Q2 '14. Whoops!) as I feel he knows growth from level is much more difficult. Retail investors may look at his open market purchases as a sign of strength and that is why I have no trepidation in selling my trading stock into that demand. I look forward to selling more shares this week if Seeking Alpha and other stimulus create additional retail demand.
I believe the PPS appreciation has exceeded the true current value at this point in time. As I have stated on numerous occasions, I hope to hold my segregated long position at least through 4/15 to receive long term capital gain treatment so my trading stock is a more accurate reflection of my sentiment on current value and near term potential upside. I do not foresee any circumstances where I would add to my MSLP investment, on the contrary, expect to thin out over 2015 perhaps closing it completely regardless of the NASDAQ carrot still being held out by that time.
AI
