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Re: bellator_exec post# 69859

Sunday, 09/14/2014 6:03:46 PM

Sunday, September 14, 2014 6:03:46 PM

Post# of 80868
As you've said repeatedly, everyone should form their own opinions and invest their capital accordingly.

I agree that MSLP will never get a premium valuation. I just expect more revenue and EPS growth than you, and hence see greater potential for price appreciation.

Growth will obviously slow on a percentage basis. But if you see a stop-in-its-tracks slowdown coming soon, that's a pretty bold prediction. Do I think they'll get $300M in 2015? Maybe. Do I think they'll exceed $300 in 2016? I'd be stunned if they didn't.

Do you think it's going to take more than 2 years, or that they'll NEVER get there?

The first $100M took 5 years. The second $100M will likely take 1 year. I don't know how long the third $100M will take, but my guess is "less than two years" (20% revenue growth per year for two years would likely do the trick).

Acquisition price would be a function of both sales and growth rate. If the average acquisition price in the sector has been 1x sales, and MSLP's projected growth rate at time of acquisition is 2x, or 3x, or 4x, or 5x the sector average, then acquisition price would be greater than 1x sales. It's really not debatable.

Regarding the value of deals with TW, Manziel, Kaepernick, Jen Selter...I simply don't know. I can't quantify the value. I don't know if the company can quantify the value. I'm sure, however, that you and LC can't quantify the value either (not trying to insult you by linking you with LC), so I give no credence to your claims that the deals don't have positive returns. MSLP's revenue growth track record is pretty solid, so I'm reasonably inclined to trust their judgment...

Time will tell, I guess. A year from now, depending on how things shake out here, I'll either be following your every post for clues on what I should do next, or I'll be thinking "what the heck was Bellator THINKING???".