Misplaced notions
1. EMV. The Bell ID thing is a far forward thing IMO. Statements of record include the LOI, a statement "anticipating" migration of the LOI to a formal agreement, and statements regarding how the revenue stream for that might take shape (transactional revenue on the difference between card-present and card not present). NONE of this implies anything resembling revenue in 2014 or even long into 2015 if in 2015 at all. The point is Wave is facing a revenue crisis, and Bell ID EMV has nothing to do with presenting a solution to that for the foreseeable future. Any statements (or missed "deadlines") regarding Bell-ID can only serve as information and perhaps SP hype. There is not a dime in this for a long time - indeed this can only have development expenses in the near term.
2. Federal FY and getting Sept sales. My understanding is that while Sep30 is the end of fed FY, that is by no means the 'spend to' date. My understanding is that federal agencies have a rolling series of cut-off dates for purchases as the FY comes to a close e.g >$10m=Aug 1, >$2m=Aug15 >$25k=Sep1 and so on.
For an 8-kable federal event it may very well be that the train has left the station. I expect that these postulated dates and cut-offs (all simply examples of the idea) vary considerably by agency. My understanding is cut-off dates are further confounded by all of the open competition, sole-sourcing, bid-window stuff ... rushing for the fy door is not as easy as just pulling a trigger.
It would seem to me that notions of hanging the hat on federal fye sales is not likely to do well.
If the Fed actually funds FY15 in a timely fashion (a rather rare event) then larger purchases at this point (mid-Sept) may be more likely to occur on the other side of the fy line and the liquidation of remaining FY14 funds is just pumped into a plethora of small ticket items that slip under cut-off thresholds (things like light bulbs, toilet paper, and pencils).
The fact is Wave's limited federal business to date has occurred in WaveQ4/FedQ1 (e.g. WEM).
3. VSC and SEDs. So while the chadder of late is regarding Bell_ID and the Feds, the plain reality (to me) is that the nearer term revenue requirements for Wave will (if/then) be met by private sector sales of VSC and or SED management. Look nowhere else. The company is discounting the product to early adopters, they have done all the hooplah their budget allows, and they are now entering a time of year where historically they have conducted the preponderance of their business.
They either get some significant early adopters (VSC) or new customers (SEDs) and the plan worked, or they don't and it didn't.
The above content is my opinion.
