Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[HDGabor]

I know that the weekly script number is not exact number, it is just a indicative, “best estimate” number, but it could show the trend and the “breakdown” to new and refill. (It is similar to TV rating.)

Companies - IMS Health, Symphony Health, etc. - buy electronic records of prescriptions from pharmacies and other sources and linked them with information about doctors that is licensed from the AMA, however they do not collect all data (ie.: IMS Health collects information on about 70%+ of all prescriptions filled in community pharmacies.) Using a statistical methodology, they project the total market (script number).

Scripts are counted based on pharmacies’ data and does not on doctors’ prescription. Every script are recorded in pharmacies as new or refill. When is it new or when is it refill?:

New:
- first time (new script)
- new prescriber, when the patient changed physician (I do not think it is a large number, since if somebody changed the physician, but has a “old” script that could be used for refill I do not see the reason to request a new script from new physician)
- new pharmacy for refill (I am not sure, since the pharmacy could recognize that it is a refill.)

Refill:
- after the first time (using the same script)

I do not know how the script recorded if somebody take more than 1 month (x months) at the same time. It could be all new or break down as 1 new and (x-1) refill, however the break down looks logical for me.

As I know not all but, the usual script is for 3 months, 1 new + 2 refills (ratio:2). I could figure out the following reason for the current new-refill ratio (1,15 – 1,25).

a.) the script is for 1 month only (and / or 3 months scripts prescribed, but all of the them is an individual script. This is the case here) – I do not think
b.) script for x months, buy at the same time: counted as x new – we need an info from pharmacist
c.) the patient does not refill – why?

I do not have a personal experience, all above based on my DD, so feel free to correct / amend me if necessary.