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Re: Aiming4 post# 748

Sunday, 04/09/2006 2:50:35 PM

Sunday, April 09, 2006 2:50:35 PM

Post# of 45320
Aiming, I wouldn't assume that this is a minor problem. A clinical hold indicates that either - 1) there's a bonafide science problem that only revealed itself after 3 months of dosing, or 2) the FDA is trying to stonewall CX-717 for some non-science related reason. Either way it spells trouble. At the very least it likely means doing additional 3 month animal studies (perhaps a 9 month delay). At the worst, the platform is in trouble. If the FDA's concern is clearly BS, BP suitors might realize that, and a BP deal *might* happen despite the clinical hold, but the odds of that happening aren't something I would bet on.

The prudent approach would be to just give Cortex an equal weighting in a diversified portfolio (say 8-12 bio stocks). That's a sound strategy to have anyway, regardless of the merits of Cortex or any other bio stock. These stocks are just too unpredictable, and sooner or later a "bet the farm" approach will blow up in your face -- just look at what happened to PARS, CTIC, EPIX, GTCB - these stocks made fools out of of some smart/experienced investors, and Cortex could easily do the same. So proceed with caution, and live to fight another day.
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