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Tuesday, April 04, 2006 5:47:20 PM
How stupid must one be to hold US Dollar denominated investments such as stocks when the dollar is going to fall by 25%-30% over the next 6 months. An investment in the US will have to appreciate by that amount just to break even. Seems like one could do quite well selling the dollar short.
Odd how the market doesn't seem to be as convinced of this. Typically when a currency is facing devaluation interest rates in that country skyrocket. Why would one invest for a 5% return when the currency will be falling at a 50% or more annual rate. Smart investors will buy and sell (arbitrage) which tends to equalize the expected return on all similar risk investments, regardless of currency.
Oh Mister Wizard of International finance please, please, please sell the US dollar short, and leverage it to the hilt. The futures market is filled with fools who don't see this obvious trend. (Who can ever remember the last time the US ran a trade deficit? Unprecedented!) Then you can take all your profits, buy out IDCC and run it properly.
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