Enanta Pharmaceuticals Inc (ENTA)

[willyw]

The share price has taken a beating the past few days, but if you have followed this stock you have seen price drops before.

The fundamentals have not changed much. It is hard to know how things will play out in the longer term, three years down the road, but the near term looks fairly clear to me.

The Abbvie/Enta regimen may get approved as much as 2 months after Gilead's approval, or perhaps as soon as only a few weeks after Gilead's.

We will soon see prices for these regimens, and patients will be enrolled and treated, and the payments to ENTA will start.

What will the patient population look like?
Well, here is one description I read today from one of the USA's prominent HCV trial hepatologists, Dr. Paul Kwo.
(much of this article may not be of great interest to investors, but I will copy a part that may be;)

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http://hepatitiscnewdrugs.blogspot.com/2014/05/reconsidering-whether-to-treat-genotype.html

"It is estimated that there are at least 500,000 individuals with advanced fibrosis in the United States, and it is this group that represents the highest priority for initiating therapy now."
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It seems to me that this is the very group that Abbvie/Enta has the strongest data sets, excellent cure rates, comparable treatment times with comparable side effects to Gilead's. I infer that the price will be lower than Gilead's regimen, and most of the news I see seems to indicate that pricing of regimens will be very, very important.

~W