$GILD - average estimates and ranges for earnings, Sovaldi sales, and price targets of the 11 or less analysts providing numbers - first number is average (with number of analysts) and then range of estimates:
Earnings
3Q - $1.82/sh (11); $1.58-1.98/sh
4Q - #2,27/sh (11); $1.87-2.69/sh
'14 - $7.92/sh (11); $7.45-8.30/sh
'15 - $8.93/sh (11); $7.61-9.70/sh
'16 - $9.50/sh (10); $7.58-11.50/sh
'17 - $10.40/sh (9); $8.68-12.90/sh
'18 - $10.64/sh (7); $7.40-13.20/sh
'19 - $9.73/sh (6); $6.87-12.16/sh
'20 - $9.37sh (5); $6.31-11.96/sh
Sovaldi sales
3Q - 2.843B (8); 2.241-3.341B
4Q - 3.835B (7); 3.050-4.529B
'14 - 12.279B (11); 11.442-12.997B
'15 - 13.763B (9); 11.849-16.616B
'16 - 13.901B (9); 11.0-19.981B
'17 - 14.367B (7); 11.0-22.292B
'18 - 14.894B (6); 8.471-21.735B
'19 - 13.576B (6); 7.219-19.132B
'20 - 12.295B (5); 7.616-18.461B
Price Target
After 2Q - 112.33 (12); 76-165
After Q1 - 103.61 (13); 65-142
My comments:
1) Estimates are pretty bunched for rest of '14 and '15. I think the '14 estimates are a little low - maybe .5B and .25/sh. I think that the '15 estimates are still quite low, average maybe $2B and $1/sh - mostly based upon OUS pickup of sales.
2) Estimates for '16 are much wider and much less knowable, but still probably low by the same $2B and $1/sh.
3) Estimates past '16 are just some-what educated guesses, and there are significant risks that they are too high and significant possibility that they are way too low. For valuation purposes, I am willing to use them for now.
4) Price target average is not unreasonable. It is around $10/sh higher than in April, which seems right. Whether it gets close to 112 is another matter. If it does, I think there will be more increases in the targets.
AI
