Hi JL
Can you post a link ( or write the heading ) for the Jelis secondary intervention group analysis.
I remember reading it but can't find it now.
I'm not sure you can say the Reduce It patients are at twice the risk as the Jelis SIG group , but would need to read the report again .
Or say we will see 355 events per year, once we hit 7,000 patients .
I just think there are two many variables to have high confidence in those estimates altho they do line up rather well with HDGators 5% event rate .
You state " The annual event rate in the statin only , which resembles the placebo group in Reduce It "group ....."
Sorry ..I don't think the Statin only Jelis SIG group resembles RI Placebo group enough to support your calculations.
RI placebo group is effectively taking as much as 4x the Statin dose as Jelis SIG group ( stronger statins at higher dose ) so they may resemble them in risk factors but not in the Statin dose they were on.
You do state that Jelis SIG group scored stat sig MACE at 4.5 yrs so if RI patients equaled out ( all factors considered ) to Jelis SIG group ...that would take us to mid 2016 .
Regarding the LDL factor ...As you have reminded us ...the true benefit from Statins may be in the lowering of inflammation ( hsCRP in the Jupiter trial ) ...not simply in the lowering of LDL. So even if we discount LDL we must acknowledge the anti inflammatory effect of stronger stains at higher dose used by patients in Reduce It
I do think the RI group is higher risk then the Jelis SIG group ,just not to the extent you calculate .
JMO
Always enjoy reading your posts ...especially the ones with the random ( and quite unusual ) quotes
Kiwi
