*SCALPSWINGSTRADDLE*

[Zephyr]

Jobless Claims - 8 year low - Released On 7/24/2014 8:30:00 AM For wk7/19, 2014
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
New Claims - Level 302 K 303 K 310 K 305 K to 320 K 284 K
4-week Moving Average - Level 309.00 K 309.25 K 302.00 K
New Claims - Change -3 K -2 K -19 K
Highlights
Unless retooling layoffs in the auto sector are less than usual this summer or are starting later than usual, jobless claims may be signaling a major shift in strength for the labor market. Initial jobless claims fell a very surprising 19,000 in the July 19 week to a much lower-than-expected level of 284,000 which compares with the Econoday consensus for 310,000 and the Econoday low estimate for 305,000. The 284,000 level is a recovery low (the lowest since 2006) as is the four-week average, down 7,250 to 302,000 (the lowest since 2007).

Also at a sweep of recovery lows are continuing claims which are reported with a one-week lag. Continuing claims fell 8,000 to 2.500 million in data for the July 12 week while the four-week average is down 17,000 to 2.542 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers is at 1.9 percent.

The degree of auto retooling layoffs is as yet not known though the Labor Department is saying they are in fact underway. This aside, jobless claims were already at low levels going into the retooling season. If employment does prove to have shifted higher this summer, jobless claims will get the credit as the first signal of the improvement.