Wednesday, July 23, 2014 9:46:13 PM
April 1st a new law will be adopted in Canada. Health Canada expects that this will lead to a ten-fold increase in the use of medical marijuana over the next decade.
'mick, me thinkzzz very conservative! canada useage! canada comes to u.s.a. for medical treatments and mexico.'
approximately 400,000 within the next decade.
I however, think that this number will be closer to a million once the drug becomes a more commonly accepted treatment for additional medical conditions.
The medical marijuana industry will be going legitimate.
mick, no more mom and pops growing!
Neighborhood grow operations, for the most part, will be a thing of the past. Marijuana will now be grown in highly regulated production facilities.
Canadians will only need a regular doctor's prescription to purchase the drug, as opposed to the existing rule where one requires a license from Health Canada.
Once the social stigma of using marijuana completely disappears it may be used as commonly as any OTC medication. Have a headache? Marijuana. Joint pain? Marijuana. Whether you approve of this or not, this is where things will be headed.
With this new law in place, prices for the once illegal drug are trending lower. In anticipation of the law taking effect, and the government's control of the market, a gram of medical marijuana now costs $5, 50% lower than the street price just a few years ago. Some growers claim they can produce a gram for about $1.80 to $2.
The likelihood of usage increasing exponentially in this country has created an unparalleled level of hype around Canadian medical marijuana-related stocks. We haven't seen this kind of buying on speculation since the dot-com days.
Speculators feed off of positive uncertainties. And given that the marijuana industry is expected to grow substantially, medical marijuana-related stocks are on fire.
The market sentiment is that the industry is embarking upon a ten year growth period. This is creating a hysteria - a buying frenzy, if you will. This, my friends, could play a significant part in recapitalizing the Canadian micro-cap market.
a few months ago, the majority of these companies' stocks couldn't catch a two or three cent bid. Very few investors, if any, were trading them, and some of these companies were still operating in another industry - the most common being exploration
Over the past five trading days, these five medical marijuana-related stocks have traded a combined dollar volume of around $20 million. These are companies who, toward the end of 2013, had a combined market capitalization of roughly $5 million. What's more, one of these companies traded near $0.015 per share last November, and managed to close on Friday above $1.30...
If you are going to enter the medical marijuana speculation craze, it is critical to understand that many public companies in the sector, or hoping to enter, will never grow one gram of marijuana.
mick, limits on full scale production / licenses? no exporting?
from canada?
There are likely several hundred applicants in Canada trying to become legal growers under the government's new law. However, Canada may only need a dozen full-scale operations to service the entire country's demand (and this isn't a product that can be exported, so the market potential is limited to Canada.)
the majority of applicants simply won't have the means to raise enough capital to construct a large enough commercial grow operation. The government does not want hundreds of small growers supplying the entire country.
It's too hard to regulate that way and this created illegal distribution in the past. The government wants large-scale operations that are efficient and well-funded. They want these grow operations to be ran by business people. This is why we have seen public companies enter this sector.
Financial Backing
Which industry is efficient at raising several million dollars, for risky ventures, in a relatively short period of time? The public markets - particularly Canada's junior speculative market. Surely the government, before granting licenses to grow on a large scale, will require proof of funding for the operation.
That eliminates all the mom and pop growers.
this estimate that will remove more than half of all applicants, perhaps even two-thirds.
The door is then open for financiers from Howe Street and Bay Street to bring on the proper management teams.
will be very interesting to watch what kind of financing terms some of the new medical marijuana-related stocks can close on.
It will also be more telling to see which institutions decide to participate in financing some of these companies.
'mick,standing behind scenes.'
If one of the major investment banks in Canada decides to bankroll a medical marijuana pubco, the floodgates will open, and we will see all the major firms follow suit.
Right now, given the controversy surrounding the sector, most firms are waiting for their competitors to make the first move.
Not Just About Growing Marijuana
Growing marijuana is just one entry into this sector for a public company
it is the riskiest and will require the most capital. There are a number of other ways a public company can capitalize on the marijuana boom, such as:
new technology to the growers (i.e. advanced hydroponic equipment)
•R&D
•providing distribution services
•servicing the investment community
•providing retail products
•Consulting services for marijuana growers and distributors
playing this market is to proceed with caution and do extensive homework.
for nothing else, the takeaway from the sudden rise in share price, and extreme influx in volume for Canadian medical marijuana stocks,
there is a boatload of speculative money on the sidelines that is desperately looking for a place to invest.
long-term growth and they'll jump in, head-first. Politics aside, the marijuana industry has growth potential unrivaled by virtually any other sector at the moment.
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