yea, on cash I was kinda flattening things. I agree on Q2. Certainly in mgmnt dreams may well be announce VSC, announce a customer shortly after, then do the Q2 report with its trainwreck numbers
but Dell looks worse than I was plugging in, makes your 3-5 look pretty reasonable.
The lumpy nature of billings and revs may well be a bit chaotic which in part is why I was saying Q1 would look pretty decent. Both Q3 and Q4 lumps will be fully ratably manifest in Q1. No doubt that it looks like, with abacus in hand, that Q4 (or Q3 and a dry Q4 or wherever the lumps may fall)may well be effectively cfbe (according to what it looks like the plan more or less must be).
So, Q1'15 = SMB 2-3, SFND 1-1.5, the partnerships 1-2m, and if 10-12m of new big deals (NBDs) come through in 2014, then 2.5-3 of that books Q1 giving 6.5-9.5 GAAP which wouldn't include any Q1 NBDs.
Obviously the foggy elements are pricing power of a VSC seat and partnership contributions, other items have some history. I'm thinking wave acts a little more modestly in terms of price vs volume.
who knows, certainly makes for fun grist, and keeps getting back to the cfbe-ish at 35m-ish and what sort of multiple such a thingy would enjoy in what look like plan-ishy Q1issh.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.