placement adjusted WAVX is now more or less in the valuation window I personally put it at this time.
Basically, the treasury is funded i.e. a runway of a few quarters, they have some revenue but not enough (the point is things to build on), there are putative revenue producing agreements that have not yet appeared on the income statement (notably Samsung) and otherwise they speak with some confidence towards the notion that the treasury is adequate to consummate a plan towards c.f.b.e.
Importantly they enjoy a massive margin in what is generally characterized as a large market and as such the equity generally enjoys rich valuaions.
As such, I like to peg the current circumstance as worth speculative investment in the 2-3x sales area. WAVX today closed at 3x sales. Prior to the placement 3x sales was more like 1.75.
3x sales represents the top edge of my widow thingy for the current state of affairs (SP $1.02-1.53).
Now it is up to the Q2 report. Should it show something resembling Dell replacement (revs can go sideways-ish if that occurs on top of Dell erosion) then that would indicate hints of plan traction, allowing a nudge of the window (be generous Dig, allow 3.5x sales in such a circumstance; SP upper edge $1.79).
Anything material that paints a comparatively clear path to c.f.b.e. gets the big promotion to north of 4x sales, that of course would change the ttm sales factor used from its current 24m to something larger, closer to 28-30m for the leading edge of that transition.
That is a good ways off, the earliest one could reasonably dream for IMO is the Q3 report ... week 2 November that would allow valuations affording a SP slightly above recent highs (not for c.f.b.e., for a comparatively clear path towards c.f.b.e).
I missed the part in all the recaps that indicated anything like this.
I did catch a bit of a goal-post move regarding govs both sides of the pond, I did read the notion that VSC would require a few Qs to sell post launch (that would make it Q2ish 2015) and so on.
Solms' comments regarding "cushions" seem a bit, uh, speculative to me. Either knows something I don't or is brimming with confidence for which there is no demonstrated basis.
Expecting a pretty grueling summer for those skipping on clouds of victory.
Maybe I am missing something.
May the pipe be with you.
The above content is my opinion.
AI
