Sometimes I have wondered if a *mere* article by Adam F, or a SA article can squash things, but I think it comes closer to providing a nudge, and then the momentum can take over. We may have seen that yesterday with the $2.52 move in share price.
Various factors have been moving ENTA, IMHO.
1) It has been trading in a ascending trough, and it continued that move Wednesday.
2) The frenzy and buyers remorse may be kicking in for those who bought IDIX or ACHN. They may have taken profits and moved to the next (or more) viable rising star.
3) On that note, much has been said in the past weeks about buying the "pig in a poke"; the nukes of either IDIX or ACHN. These may indeed be good nukes but almost everyone knows that until fall or more trials, the efficacy and primarily the safety issue is still very much up in the air. Many more people now also know that ENTA also has a nuke, which adds to it's value, .....or perceived value this month when you have to have a nuke if you're gunna be a contender. :)
4) One of the Seeking Alpha articles which questioned the ACHN recent valuation this past few weeks mentioned ENTA as a company that has a good stable of products and a history of getting drugs through trials.
In that regard Jay Luly also put on a good show in his Tuesday 17 presentation. He touched on that list of assets, showed that the company has good products, good partnerships, and a great history of getting drugs out of development towards market. He made the point that ENTA could see drugs/therapies hitting approval in 2014, 15, 16,and 2017. He made the case that the Abbvie partnership wasn't the only thing they had going, mentioning the Novartis partnership, or NIAID support for bicyclolide antibiotics. Basically, ENTA has a lot of products and they all seem to be moving along nicely.
Luly also mentioned the 2nd generation collaboration with ABBVIE and it too sounded as though it held great promise, and would be available 2017. Or that the 2D program in Japan was currently in phase 3.
5) That brings me to...... in the past few weeks with the IDIX offer and the speculation of stocks like ACHN having a nuke and being bought..... there is also speculation that ENTA will be purchased. *COULD* there be a buyout with comparable potential seen in IDIX?
6) From what I have read there are a number of shorts that are also being squeezed by the stocks rising price.
Given the premium that was paid for IDIX, it could very well be that people shorting ENTA could be fleeing their position, fearing a buyout and a comparable share price increase.
7) At the very same time that institutional buyers are getting into ENTA.
8) There has not been significant ENTA insider selling which tends to worry investors.
9) It has been a good past month and as all the articles about Gileads 1000 dollar pill come to print, or articles questioning the pricing, or IF payors like Oregon or Great Britain will stand for the pricing, each article lends more credence to the Abbvie 3D treatment as a viable competitor. Abbvie or ENTA don't have to sell this treatment; it sells itself.
10) Abbvie/ENTA is getting an early review in USA and EU and the perception of a huge lead that Gilead may have been reduced.
11) We are starting to get a better understanding that the treating demographics will be towards more advanced and harder to treat patient groups. The Abbvie/Enta treatments for those groups have great efficacy rates and comparable treatment sides and durations compared with Gilead. This could be slowly dawning on investors. (It might be a very different deal if all the TX naives were going to be treated the upcoming year)
Really..... there just has been an absence of bad news.
These are a few things that have crossed my mind recently, and when Gilead is having some hard share price days (weeks, months), it only stands to reason that other investors look for a place to invest in the HCV space.
Today ENTA is up about 20% in the past month, whereas Gilead has actually lost share price in the past 30 days.
Apologies for the length, but there are a number of factors which may have moved the stock, and continue to move the stock.
~W
