ncb, fwiw it is not to me a matter of being correct or incorrect on SP guesses (to me).
I try to stay away from guessing a price, I will however try to look at a company, the industry they are in, the margins they enjoy, cash-flow and balance sheet and growth rate and then try to guess what sort of share price multiple the market might be inclined to give it upon certain milestones.
Wave is the kind of company the market will give extravagant multiples to (e.g. P:S). But, to me, it is contingent on the milestones. The guess is then when will those milestones be achieved, and what guess does one employ for the multiple.
The very very last thing to fall out is the SP. All guesses of course, even a sweet spot company get bad ratios when the broader market tanks and vice versa.
Today, when I do that sort of math I e.g. think that WYY is more likely to double or quadruple in the next 12-18 months than WAVX. WYY's books and statements and deals of record give a fair bit to work with. WAVX is just guessing. It seems a tad overvalued right now, so IMO some of the growth that improvement in fundamentals will afford will get sapped by that.
But by most metrics, if Wave can achieve cfbe, and do that in the context of 35-40m in annual revs, then one can likely find many investors that would participate in P:S > 5 , P:S 10 not being unrealistic. But that is almost DOUBLE current revs with a shrinking Dell line.
Impressive SP numbers drop out of that but for me I need to see those milestones and cannot pull a SP bunny out of the hat in the absence of those milestones.
So I wait for the next deal, and I wait for the next Q report. One deal for $2m gives cfbe ... but only for the quarter billed (or more, Dell is eroding fast).
I guess the point is we have no idea if I am "right" the milestones or triggers for such a determination have not occurred.
The above content is my opinion.
