A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board

[BowlerBob]

Alton,

My personal goal (dream) is to find a method that allows me to enter within 10% of a bottom. Neither sequential buying, indicator following, eliminating the AIM timing factor, or buying on the PC side seems to consistently provide for that illusive goal. Maybe one of the mentioned factors above and a crystal ball would do it?

I was just reading through some of the messages on the "Ocroft" system and saw your "plea". I don't know if you ever got a response, other than Conrad's, but it seems to me that it would be very simple to enter within 10% of "a bottom", any bottom. Of course, this means that the "bottom" is in the past.

Go to one of the free charting services (www.freestockcharts.com is one I use), put in the stock or ETF symbol you are interested in, find that recent "bottom", determine the Price at that time, and multiply by 1.1 (10%). Then draw a Horizontal Line at that multiplied Price and (if you can) color it Red. Then multiply that "bottom" Price by 1.05 (5%) and draw a Green Horizontal Line. You make your purchase when the Price moves between the two lines and before it exceeds the Red line. No problem! No Indicators!

The work is in selecting a good stock or ETF and determining whether "this bottom" is a "good bottom" for your purposes, but you already do half of this process before you begin by selecting the issue. The second half can be accomplished by using the AIM Holding Zone, in a manner similar to Ocroft (If you pretended to Buy the stock or ETF at its High, before that bottom, and then AIM the position, did AIM generate a Buy Signal? If yes, it is probably a pretty good bottom, If no, then it may be a good bottom to ignore).

There is one more angle you should consider: If your stock is generating AIM buy signals and some big event happens, you might want to look at that chart everyday for a little while, to see how your stock was affected. For instance, in early March 2009 the entire market began to explode upwards. If you had run your monthly AIM check on Mar 2nd and gotten the buy signal, you wouldn't be scheduled to check again until April 1st, that is what Ocroft would do, but you are not waiting for a "Zero Buy" signal, you want to get in at less than 10% from that March 9th Low. I suggest looking at your chosen chart daily to see when it "qualifies".

Using IWM, SPY, & QQQ as examples, you would have had to enter your position no later than March 11th to achieve your goal. On the 12th, IWM was at +13.29%, QQQ at +11.38%, and SPY at +10.24%, compared to the Low on 3/9/09. This is just an extreme example, and Ocroft would be quick to say that his entry date of 4/1/09 achieved his goals, as well. But I am only responding to your point.

Respectfully,

Bob