I typed a very long and eloquent post as a reply to this, but accidentally hit "back" and it was deleted...
And so I'll have to summarize...
Your post neglects the influx of the recreational market that we, Canada, have implemented underneath the guise of the medical marijuana patient. If you do your DD and examine social media, such as Tweed's Facebook page, you'll see that a large number of new patients are between the ages of 18 and 30 years of age. The MMPR is opening up the floodgates, allowing several new people to be able to purchasing "medical" marijuana under the new system and at reasonable amounts -- 1 to 3grams/day.
These doses are nowhere near the amount that a terminally ill patient would use on a day-to-day basis. MS patients and those suffering with Parkinson's disease may require up to a pound of medicine per month to control their tremors. This equates to over $2,000 of medicine per month and is simply unsustainable, even at compassionate prices of 5 dollars per gram, and therefore highlights the massive flaw in the MMPR --- cultivation. Ergo, the personal production licenses have been reinstated because these people are able to grow their medicine at a fifth of the price, or less, and may also be able to acquire medicine for free (or very little cost) from the designated growers under the MMAR.
The MMPR, however, is allowing for several hundred thousands of Canadians to acquire licenses to consume between 1 and 3 grams per day for just about any "ailment". We are looking at a recreational market opening up underneath the overcoat of the "medical" market. In my opinion this is Canada's way of following its American brothers and yet remaining under the "medicinal" system. In doing so, they are effectively testing the industry's profitability, encouraging a competitive market between Licensed Producers, and making it very easy for Canadians to acquire signatures from General Practitioners.
While I appreciate your cautionary tale, your post neglects the thousands upon thousands of new "patients" who will be arising beneath the MMPR umbrella. As an investor, you should be seeing dollar signs, and should consider yourself lucky that you can invest in such an opportunity. Canada is dipping their feet into the world of recreational marijuana through the MMPR system.
While I agree that this system is flawed because it disadvantages the real patients who require upwards of a pound of medicine a month, as an investor I support the arise of competition and see great potential in the forthcoming years. Eventually this system will be divided into a medical market, a compassionate system similar to the MMAR with few designated growers producing dirt cheap medicine to those who NEED it and find it largely inaccessible because of their bodily ailments, and also a recreational market which supports the high prices of the Licensed Producers because of the comparably low consumption rates of such users. The aforementioned PATIENTS must be taken care of, and they must be able to acquire their medicine at cheap prices or free of charge, but the MMPR ultimately opens the floodgates for recreational users disguised as medical marijuana patients and will therefore bring some beautiful financials in the forthcoming quarterly reports. I agree with your post in the sense that the system is severely flawed because it actually hurts the old patients, but as an investor we should be seeing dollar signs when taking into account the number of NEW "patients" -- many of whom are recreational users -- and those who simply wish to use cannabis instead of taking Tylenol or Ibuprofen.
Do your DD, observe the whole industry, and consider all the angles....then... PROFIT.
I am sorry this post looks nowhere near as beautiful as my first refute....
Cheers and Happy Capitalism!
