Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[ppnlf]

AMRN is a bit like Zeno's tortoise in its race with Achilles. Every time Achilles catches up with the Tortoise it has moved on again. So both Achilles and the tortoise reckon that Achilles can never catch it.

From outside however it is clear that the distance between them is getting smaller each step.

Unless you watch the market daily, each time you look at the AMRN PPS it seems to have halved. If you believe Zeno's logic the PPS will never get to zero. Just uncomfortably close.

The only way to change this direction (or drift) is confidence. Investor & market confidence. Vascepa is a fantastic product. Why is it that people don't believe this and the PPS reflects this disbelief?

The sole reason is management. Which sadly just does not know how to get investors (other than die-hard longs - and I am one) to believe that the PPS is or may be going up.

JZ mis-played this spectacularly. And as a result is history. What we need now is for John Thero to show that under his direction the tortoise is going to turn and chase Achilles away.

This needs
1. Management to signal that they believe in AMRN by buying shares rather than just taking incentive deals.
No excuses - if they don't believe in it why should we?
2. Yes, we were screwed by the FDA. Continue the fight but that should not be the main show.
3. Sales growth (or at least increasing scripts) is the only driver to long term value.
4. Show that others believe in Vascepa - Kowa is actually really good and underrated news. But we need & want & deserve more. Why not establish partnerships outside the US? (High trigs are everywhere aren't they?)
5. Communicate properly - the way AMRN handle the investor conference calls is surely a case study in ineptitude. And IR is not much better.
6. Costs - show that management care that these need to be controlled. The chainsaw that was taken to the marketing team after last autumn's stitch-up was a necessary move but under-appreciated by the market. Are there any other areas for cost saving that have good market visibility (including exec compensation)?
7. REDUCE-IT - forget the poker play of "will we, won't we". A strong commitment to seeing this through needs to be shouted from the rooftops. And a clear demonstration that sufficient funds are there to do so needs to be shared with the market. Clarity on financing matters please.

The choice is clear. Head for a market cap (again) of $1bn plus or drift to a cap of $1mn minus.

If it is the latter then what a waste!