Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[HDGabor]

With the existing R-IT SPA I do not want to see the interim data before March 2016 (967 events, 25% eff. 99% Power / source: Biwatch). We could see earlier if the yearly event rate is higher than 5.2% in the placebo group (who knows) or if Amarin renegotiate the SPA w FDA regarding the time (%) of interim data collection (but in this case we need higher eff., so it's a little bit risky).

It's till theoretical, but based on their cash-flow assumption - -80M in 2014 and will be flat later - they will have enough cash at least till data collection and I assume til the date of publication of interim result which will be - I guess - app. 6 months after data collection (in Q3-Q4 2016).

The Q1 result is good (not excellent yet), but we could see the trend after the Q2 / Q3 result only.