XpresSpa Group Inc (XSPA)

[bobr0b]

I'm currently at ~10% asset allocation for our beloved VRNG, but I've been doing research on the Kelly Criterion and it's advantages with regard to asset allocation.

So I'm trying to use a range of the Kelly Criterion to approximate the appropriate position size for VRNG in my portfolio


Using:

p = prob of win
b = payout on bet


[p * b - (1 - p)] / b


I'd appreciate it if anyone can help me get a better approximation of prob and/or payout, e.g., historic probabilities regarding CAFC & SCOTUS appeals, etc...